The post-election rotation carries into a second session: Dow futures are up about 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 futures down about 0.8%. Qualcomm beat and fell 9% as handset sales dropped 26%. Software that prints cash, AppLovin and Unity, is up 20% or more.
Research compiled from overnight and pre-market reporting (~4:00 to ~9:10 AM ET). Wednesday our research set two tests: AMD had to recover while CoreWeave stayed down, and the equal-weight index had to beat the Nasdaq 100. Both passed. This morning the chip side of the AI trade faces a new question: memory’s price is now the device maker’s cost.

At a Glance: What Moves the Tape

  • Rotation continues: Dow futures are up about 0.6% (+340 points), S&P 500 futures about flat, Nasdaq 100 futures down about 0.8%. Wednesday the Dow rose 3.03%, its best day since April 2025. [Yahoo Finance, 11/05, ~9:06 AM; CNBC, 11/05; CappNotes, 11/04]
  • Qualcomm sinks: down about 9% after handset revenue fell 26% on memory costs and slower phone sales; the EPS guide midpoint of $2.25 sits below $2.27. Arm is down 2% to 4%. [Investing.com via Reuters, 11/05; Current Logic, 11/05]
  • Memory sold in Seoul: Kospi closed down 5.28%; SK Hynix fell about 9.5% and Samsung about 7.6%. Advantest fell 11.7% in Tokyo. [CNBC, 11/05; Current Logic, 11/05]
  • Oil bounces after an 8% drop: Brent is near $96 to $97, up about 1.6% to 3%, after the IRGC said two tankers and a tugboat caught fire in Hormuz. Brent settled Wednesday at $94.62. [CNBC via Reuters, 11/05; CappNotes, 11/04]
  • Data and central banks: jobless claims fell to 189,000 vs 196,000 expected; productivity rose 3.6%. The Bank of England hiked 25bp to 4%. Barkin speaks at 9:10 AM. [FXStreet, 11/05; CNBC, 11/05; Yahoo Finance, 11/05]

1. Macro Pulse

Dow Fut
+0.6%
Up about 340 points
Nasdaq 100 Fut
−0.8%
Chips lead lower
10-Yr Yield
~4.91%
+1bp after a 6bp drop
Brent (Jan)
~$96.30
+1.6% after −8.7%
Gold
~$4,136
+1.6%, two-week high

Wednesday’s close: the vote rally. The Dow jumped 1,569.40 points, or 3.03%, to 53,356.12, its best day since April 9, 2025. The S&P 500 rose 1.58% to 7,688.62, its best day in three months. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.44% to 25,736.51 and the Nasdaq 100 0.91%. [CappNotes, 11/04; StockTitan via CNBC, 11/04]

Breadth: the second leg. The equal-weight S&P 500 rose 1.86%, beating the Nasdaq 100 by almost a point; the Russell 2000 rose 1.58%. Gainers beat decliners about 3 to 1. Discretionary rose 4.26% and financials 3.51%; energy fell 4.74%, industrials 1.09%, technology was flat and the SOX fell 3.13%. [CappNotes, 11/04]

This morning. At about 9:06 AM, Dow futures were up 0.64%, S&P 500 futures up 0.05% near 7,724.50, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.90% and Russell 2000 futures up 0.18%. Broadcom is down about 3%, Nvidia about 2%; Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and American Express are up more than 1%. [Yahoo Finance, 11/05, ~9:06 AM; CNBC, 11/05, ~8:53 AM]

Bonds. The 10-year fell about 6bp Wednesday to 4.89%, the 2-year to 4.58% and the 30-year to 5.28%. This morning the 10-year is near 4.91%, up about 1bp. Democrats’ Senate majority also blocks the White House’s effort to reshape the Fed. [CappNotes, 11/04; Yahoo Finance, 11/05]

Oil: an 8% drop, then a bounce. Brent settled Wednesday down 8.67% at $94.62 and WTI down 8.29% at $88.12, the lowest since August 31. This morning Brent is near $96.30 and WTI near $89.30. The IRGC said two tankers and a tugboat caught fire after using unauthorized Hormuz routes. [CappNotes, 11/04; Trading Economics, 11/05; CNBC via Reuters, 11/05]

Iran. Vice President Vance posted that the war is “the reason we lost.” Eurasia Group cut its odds of a deal to 10% from 20% and raised a continued standoff to 30%; renewed US strikes stay its base case at 60%. Hormuz crude flows are close to pre-war levels, at higher cost. [Yahoo Finance, 11/05; CNBC via Reuters, 11/05]

[ANALYSIS] Wednesday oil priced a weaker White House as less war. This morning’s tanker fires and Eurasia’s 60% strike odds say the risk is not gone, only cheaper.

Overseas. Kospi closed down 5.28%, with SK Hynix down about 9.5% and Samsung about 7.6%. In Tokyo, Advantest fell 11.7% and Tokyo Electron slumped, while the broader Topix rose about 2%. Hang Seng Tech rose more than 5%. In Europe, Rheinmetall fell as much as 16% after cutting its outlook, and the FTSE 100 hit a three-month high. [CNBC, 11/05; Current Logic, 11/05; Rio Times, 11/05; Yahoo Finance, 11/05]

Dollar, gold, crypto, volatility. The dollar index is near 101.3 to 101.5 after falling 0.34% Wednesday. Gold is up about 1.6% to $4,136, a two-week high. Bitcoin is near $79,500. The VIX is near 16.8 after falling 20% Wednesday to 16.61. [CNBC, 11/05; Yahoo Finance, 11/05, ~9:06 AM; CappNotes, 11/04]

MARKET TONE: MIXED, ROTATING. Money keeps leaving AI hardware for banks, consumer names and small caps. Chips and memory fall on Qualcomm’s phone slump; software that prints cash is paid.

2. Economic Calendar

Release / EventTime (ET)Why It Matters
Bank of England decision7:00 AM (out)Hiked 25bp to 4%, 8–1, the first hike since 2023; one member wanted more. It sees inflation near 5% by mid-2027. A global reminder that oil is still a rate problem.
Challenger job cuts (Oct)7:30 AM (out)43,994, down 71% from a year ago and the lowest since 2023. Layoffs are not the labor risk.
Initial jobless claims (week to Oct 31)8:30 AM (out)189,000 vs 196,000 expected and 195,000 prior, matching July’s low, the lowest since 1969. Continuing claims rose 23,000 to 1.718M.
Productivity and unit labor costs (Q3 prelim)8:30 AM (out)Productivity +3.6% vs 2.9% expected; unit labor costs −0.7%. A disinflationary print for wages, offset by a record-low labor share of 53%.
Fed: Hammack (Cleveland)8:50 AMHawk; dissented for a hike in October. She repeated that getting to 2% calls for smaller, more frequent moves.
Fed: Barkin (Richmond)9:10 AMHas backed gradual hikes and flagged the AI investment boom as an inflation risk. December hike odds are about 77%.
Earnings before the openPre-marketConocoPhillips, Southern, Duke, EOG, Cigna, Parker-Hannifin: the oil names report after an 8% crude drop.
Earnings after the close4:00 PM onwardCloudflare, Airbnb, Monster, Lumentum, Simon Property. Lumentum is the AI optical read after Qualcomm.

[ANALYSIS] Low claims, strong productivity and falling labor costs make a firm economy without a wage problem. That leaves oil as the main inflation input into Friday’s payrolls. [FXStreet, 11/05; CNBC, 11/05; Seeking Alpha, 11/05; Stocktwits, 11/05; CappNotes, 11/04]

3. Earnings Spotlight

QCOM Qualcomm · Semiconductors
About −9% premarket, near $158
Reported: fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of about $10.3B to $10.4B vs about $10.1B expected; adjusted EPS $2.17 vs $2.16. Handset revenue fell 26% to $5.14B, pulling chip sales down 8% to $9.02B. [KuCoin, 11/05; Current Logic, 11/05; Investing.com via Reuters, 11/05]
Guidance: December-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.15 to $2.35; the $2.25 midpoint is below the $2.27 consensus. Data-center revenue above $650M next quarter; a $5B fiscal 2027 data-center target was reiterated. [KuCoin, 11/05; Current Logic, 11/05]
Earnings Quality: BEAT, SOLD A one-cent beat on a guide that misses at the midpoint, with the core business shrinking.
[ANALYSIS] Management cited rising memory costs. The memory boom our research has tracked since October is now a cost for the phone makers that buy it. The stock rose 5.33% Wednesday into the print.
Wait for Clarity
ARM Arm Holdings · Chip Design
About −2% to −4% premarket
Reported: record fiscal second-quarter revenue of $1.44B, up 27%; licensing revenue up 50% to $773M; data-center royalties doubled. EPS of $0.52 vs $0.47 expected. [Benzinga, 11/05; CNBC, 11/05]
Guidance: more confident in up to $2B of AGI CPU revenue over fiscal 2027 and 2028. [Current Logic, 11/05]
Earnings Quality: CLEAN BEAT A beat on both lines with the data-center input accelerating.
[ANALYSIS] The stock fell 5.28% Wednesday and about 19% in a week. A clean print is not enough while money is leaving the chip chain; phones are still Arm’s largest royalty base.
Wait for Clarity
APP AppLovin · Ad Software
About +19% to +23% premarket
Reported: revenue up 55% to a record $2.18B vs $2.07B expected; EPS $4.30 vs $4.04. Net income rose 72% to $1.44B; free cash flow was $1.4B, with an 84% adjusted EBITDA margin. [AppLovin 8-K, 11/04; Yahoo Finance, 11/05]
Guidance: fourth-quarter revenue of $2.37B to $2.40B vs $2.25B expected. BTIG raised its target to $450; Needham holds $475. [Yahoo Finance, 11/05]
Earnings Quality: CLEAN BEAT GAAP profit and cash flow lead the beat, with a guide 6% above consensus.
[ANALYSIS] AppLovin uses AI to sell ads, not to build data centers, so it passes both the forward clause and the permission filter. A reported SEC investigation is the open risk. [finanzen.net, 11/05]
Momentum Play
MELI MercadoLibre · E-Commerce · Fintech
About −6% to −7% premarket
Reported: revenue of $7.41B vs $7.25B expected; EPS of $8.32 vs $9.43 expected, on net income of $421M. [Daily Guardian via AP, 11/05; Current Logic, 11/05]
Context: gross merchandise volume and items sold hit multi-year highs on Brazil shipping incentives; margins were squeezed by Argentina currency losses and shipping and marketing spend. The stock rose 4.68% Wednesday. [Stocktwits, 11/05; Current Logic, 11/05]
Earnings Quality: MISS A revenue beat bought with margin; EPS missed by about 12%.
[ANALYSIS] Spending for growth gets charged when the profit line misses. It also carries the Brazil election discount from late October.
Wait for Clarity

4. Pre-Market Movers: Upside

U Unity Software · Game Software
About +22% premarket
Catalyst: adjusted EPS $0.44 vs $0.03 expected; revenue up 32% to $622M vs $565.8M. Fourth-quarter revenue guided to $683M to $691M vs $601.3M, and adjusted EBITDA to $290M to $295M vs $201.3M. [Investing.com, 11/05, 7:44 AM]
Signal Check: Real. A revenue guide about 14% above consensus is the largest forward gap of the morning.
[ANALYSIS] Unity sells ad tools into the same game market as AppLovin. Two guides well above consensus confirm the demand is in the category.
Opportunity
EPAM EPAM Systems · IT Services
About +13.6% premarket
Catalyst: adjusted EPS $3.51 vs $3.40; revenue of $1.426B vs $1.42B, up 2.3%. Full-year adjusted EPS raised to $13.23 to $13.31 and revenue growth to 3.5% to 3.7%; buyback raised by $1.5B. [Investing.com, 11/05, 7:44 AM]
Signal Check: Real, but the growth is slow. The move pays a raise and a buyback, not acceleration.
[ANALYSIS] IT services has been sold as an AI loser. A raise eases that fear for a quarter; 2.3% growth does not end it.
Wait for Open
WRBY · PTON Warby Parker · Peloton · Consumer
WRBY about +22%; PTON about +7%
Catalyst: Warby Parker revenue rose 10.4% to $244.7M, slightly below estimates; adjusted EBITDA of $28.6M beat its own guide and full-year EBITDA was reaffirmed. Peloton revenue of $559.2M beat $554.6M, with free cash flow of $143M. [Investing.com, 11/05, 7:44 AM; CNBC, 11/05]
Signal Check: Mixed. Warby Parker missed on revenue and EPS ($0.04 vs $0.09) and is up on margin; sources split on Peloton’s EPS against estimates.
[ANALYSIS] Consumer names are catching the rotation bid; discretionary led Wednesday at +4.26%. A 22% move on a revenue miss is positioning, not fundamentals.
Avoid Chasing
TM Toyota Motor · Autos
About +8.5% to +8.7% premarket
Catalyst: fiscal second-quarter results filed in Tokyo overnight. [Current Logic, 11/05; Yahoo Finance, 11/05]
Signal Check: Real filing, unclear detail. The sources we could reach did not carry the figures behind the move.
[ANALYSIS] A large-cap move near 9% without a confirmed number needs the open to show whether it holds on volume.
Wait for Open

5. Pre-Market Movers: Downside

MU · SNDK · CRWV Micron · SanDisk · CoreWeave · Memory · AI Cloud
MU about −3% to −5%; SNDK about −4%; CRWV about −4%
Catalyst: Qualcomm’s memory-cost warning and Seoul’s 5.28% drop. Wednesday Micron fell 7.00%, SanDisk 7.91%, CoreWeave 9.90% and Iren 11.24%; CoreWeave’s five-year CDS rose to about 1,140bp. [Current Logic, 11/05; CNBC, 11/05; CappNotes, 11/04; StockTitan, 11/04]
Damage Assessment: Two different problems. Memory faces a demand question from device makers; the neoclouds carry credit and permit risk.
[ANALYSIS] Memory names hold the most gains in the chain, so they are the first sold when a customer complains about price.
Wait for Clarity
SNAP Snap · Social Media
About −10% premarket, near $5.34
Catalyst: third-quarter revenue of $1.72B vs $1.73B; daily users of 495M vs 499M expected. Ad revenue grew 4%, slowing from 9%. [Investing.com, 11/05, 7:44 AM]
Damage Assessment: Structural. Users and ad growth both slowed while AppLovin’s ad revenue grew 55%.
[ANALYSIS] The ad budget is moving to platforms that prove returns. Snap rose 5.90% Wednesday on the rotation, and the print erased it.
Structural Issue
EXPE · BROS Expedia · Dutch Bros · Travel · Restaurants
EXPE about −7%; BROS about −13.7%
Catalyst: Expedia guided fourth-quarter revenue to $3.69B to $3.75B, a midpoint below the $3.74B consensus. Dutch Bros beat by a penny at $0.25 but guided 2026 revenue to $2.10B vs $2.13B, with EBITDA also below. [Investing.com, 11/05, 7:44 AM]
Damage Assessment: One-quarter guide misses, not breaks. Both came off a consumer rally that lifted discretionary 4.26% Wednesday.
[ANALYSIS] The forward clause applies outside AI too. A small guide miss after a rally day costs 7% to 14%.
Wait for Clarity
MNTN MNTN · Ad Software
About −45% premarket
Catalyst: revenue of $80.3M vs its own $86M to $89M guide; full-year revenue guide cut to $311M to $314M from $347M to $357M. About 40% of experienced sales staff left after a pay change; Tony Weisman was named CEO. [Investing.com, 11/05, 7:44 AM]
Damage Assessment: Structural. A miss on its own guide, a 12% guide cut and a sales-force exit in one quarter.
[ANALYSIS] Execution, not the ad market: AppLovin and Unity raised in the same category the same night.
Structural Issue

6. Sector Rotation Radar

STRONG: Financials, Communication and Consumer

Pre-market, XLC is up about 1.5% and XLF about 1.3%; Goldman, JPMorgan and American Express are up more than 1%. Wednesday financials rose 3.51% and discretionary 4.26%. Durability: moderate. Banks have a steeper rate base and a lighter rule-making Congress; the consumer bid already met guide misses at Expedia and Dutch Bros. [Current Logic, 11/05; CNBC, 11/05; CappNotes, 11/04]

WEAK: Chips, Memory and AI Power

XLK is down about 0.9% pre-market; Qualcomm about 9%, Micron 3% to 5%, GE Vernova about 2% and Comfort Systems about 1.9%. Wednesday the SOX fell 3.13%, GE Vernova 9.30% and Vistra 13.83%. Durability: moderate to high; Seoul’s 5.28% drop says the selling is global. [Current Logic, 11/05; CNBC, 11/05; CappNotes, 11/04]

[ANALYSIS] Wednesday the equal-weight index beat the Nasdaq 100 by almost a point; this morning futures repeat the pattern. Two days make a rotation; a third at Friday’s payrolls would make it a regime.

7. Today’s Session Playbook

  1. Data: claims and productivity are out. Claims at 189,000 and unit labor costs at −0.7% mean no wage scare. Barkin at 9:10 AM is the policy read; a hawkish tone with December odds near 77% tests the bond.
  2. Top story: Qualcomm and memory. Watch whether Micron and SanDisk recover as the session goes on. If memory keeps falling while AppLovin holds its gain, the market is paying AI users over AI hardware.
  3. S&P 500 levels: Wednesday closed at 7,688.62, above the 7,676.77 resistance we flagged. Support is 7,676.77, then 7,650. Resistance is 7,757.17, the October 21 close, then the 7,818.93 record.
  4. Event risk: oil and Iran. Brent is near $96 after the tanker fires. A move back above $100 would test the bond rally that gridlock started.
  5. Under-the-radar: Wall Street banks. Goldman, JPMorgan and American Express are up again after a 3.51% sector day. Banks gain from a steeper curve and lighter rules, and they carry no data-center risk.
The Weekly Edge · [ANALYSIS] Hypothesis only, not a recommendation
The memory boom has a customer now. Qualcomm says memory costs are shrinking phone sales, and the market is selling the chip chain from both ends

Wednesday our research set the test: AMD had to recover while CoreWeave stayed down, and the equal-weight index had to beat the Nasdaq 100. Both passed. AMD closed up 1.01% after trading flat pre-market; CoreWeave fell 9.90%. The equal-weight index rose 1.86% against 0.91% for the Nasdaq 100. Brent fell 8.67% to $94.62, well below $100.

The test passed by the letter, but the chain was taxed. The SOX fell 3.13%, Nvidia 3.17%, Micron 7.00% and Super Micro 5.70%. Only names with forward numbers held: AMD +1.01% and Arista +5.04%. [CappNotes, 11/04; StockTitan, 11/04]

Our Wednesday calls: AMD, Wait for Open, +1.01%; waiting cost little. Novo Nordisk, Opportunity, +4.95%; right. Datadog, Wait for Clarity, −14.42%; right. CVS, Wait for Clarity, −12.53%, more than double its pre-market loss; right. Arista and Super Micro, Momentum Play, split: +5.04% and −5.70%. Duolingo, Momentum Play, +25.99%; right. Block, Opportunity, +15.30%; right. First Solar, Avoid Chasing, +4.63%, below its pre-market +7.6%; right. Tesla and SpaceX, Wait for Clarity, −3.34% and −3.81%, smaller than pre-market. CoreWeave and Iren, Dead Cat Watch, −9.90% and −11.24%; right. Trump Media, Structural Issue, −24.54%; right. Amdocs and Skyworks, Wait for Clarity, −30.07% and −2.90%. The S&P closed at 7,688.62, through our 7,676.77 resistance. [CappNotes, 11/04; StockTitan, 11/04]

The hypothesis now: the AI audits we have tracked since October hit spenders, then lenders, then builders. Today the chip chain meets its customer. Qualcomm beat, but handset revenue fell 26% as memory prices rose, and Seoul sold memory 5% to 9%. Software that uses AI to earn, AppLovin and Unity, is paid 20% or more. The market is paying AI users and charging AI hardware from both sides: permits above it, customers below it. The test today: if memory stays down while AppLovin holds and the equal-weight index beats the Nasdaq 100 a third time, the rotation is a regime. If Barkin is hawkish and Brent returns above $100, the bond rally behind the rotation loses its support. Investors, and we, should not read a cheaper chip as a better buy until the customer stops complaining about price.

Sources

CappNotes: Wednesday close, breadth, sectors, single-stock moves, yields, oil, gold, dollar, VIX, bitcoin, December hike odds, ISM services and after-hours moves. StockTitan: Wednesday live blog, closing moves and after-hours quotes (CNBC). Yahoo Finance: Thursday live blog, futures and market data (~9:06 AM), AppLovin, Bank of England, Iran and the Fed. CNBC: Thursday live updates (~8:53 AM), productivity, pre-market movers, Asia and Europe; oil and Iran via Reuters. Investing.com: pre-market movers (7:44 AM) and Qualcomm (via Reuters). Current Logic: pre-market moves, Qualcomm, Arm, sector ETFs, Brent and Kospi. KuCoin and Benzinga: Qualcomm and Arm results. FXStreet: jobless claims. Seeking Alpha and Stocktwits: Hammack and Barkin. Trading Economics: Brent. Rio Times: Asia. Daily Guardian (AP) and Stocktwits: MercadoLibre. finanzen.net: AppLovin. AppLovin 8-K filing. All prices and figures are pre-market or prior-session snapshots (~4:00 to ~9:10 AM ET) and may have changed by the open.

Important Disclaimer

FOR INFORMATIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. This document is prepared by Carlos Artiles and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security. All data is drawn from publicly available information believed reliable but not guaranteed. Pre-market prices and figures reflect conditions at the time of research and may have changed materially by the open. Verdict tags are analytical frameworks, not trade signals. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed professional before acting.