WTI is down about 4% to near $99 after a report that Trump wants to give Iran diplomacy more time before any new strikes. Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.6% to 0.9% after a 3.5% Friday drop, and the 10-year holds near 4.92%. Apple and Palantir report after the close, a day before the midterms.
Research compiled pre-market (~8:55 AM ET). Friday closed October with the S&P 500’s worst day since June, led by Intel’s worst day since 1974. Today the two taxes on equities, energy and money, are easing at the same time. The week brings Tuesday’s midterm elections, Wednesday’s Treasury refunding and Friday’s October jobs report; today has the ISM manufacturing index at 10:00 AM and Goolsbee at 11:15 AM.

At a Glance: What Moves the Tape

  • Oil below $100: WTI fell more than 4% to about $99.31 and Brent 4.4% to $108.37 after Axios reported Trump wants more time for Iran diplomacy before resuming strikes. [CNBC, ~8:20 AM ET; ZeroHedge, 11/02]
  • Futures rebound: S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.6% to 0.9%, Dow up 0.4% to 0.7%, Russell 2000 up about 0.8%. [CNBC, ~8:20 AM ET; Yahoo Finance, ~8:50 AM ET]
  • Friday’s damage: S&P 500 −1.82% to 7,580.07, Nasdaq Composite −2.86%, Intel −28.6%; the Nasdaq 100 lost about 6.5% in October, its worst month since March 2025. [StockTitan, 10/30; Yahoo Finance, 11/02]
  • Marvell buys Lumentum: an all-stock deal valuing Lumentum at about $115B, 4.5 Marvell shares per Lumentum share, closing in the first half of 2028. [CNBC, 11/02]
  • After the close: Apple (about $1.98 EPS, $113.2B–$113.6B revenue expected), the first report under CEO John Ternus, and Palantir (about $2.18B revenue, +85%). [Yahoo Finance, 11/02; Benzinga, 11/02]

1. Macro Pulse

S&P 500 Fut
+0.3% to +0.6%
~7,638–7,658 Dec
Nasdaq 100 Fut
+0.6% to +0.9%
after −3.5% Friday
Dow Fut
+0.4% to +0.7%
~52,289
10-Yr Yield
~4.92%
little changed
WTI (Dec)
~$99–$100, −4%
Iran diplomacy

Friday’s close: October ends on a tech rout. The S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07, its biggest drop since June 5; the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.86% to 25,437.00, the Dow 1.09% to 51,770.31 and the Russell 2000 1.66% to 2,811.84. The SOX fell 7.2%. Intel sank about 29% to $65.76, its worst day since 1974. For the week the S&P lost 0.57%, the Nasdaq 2.00% and the Dow 0.85%. [StockTitan, 10/30; Yahoo Finance, 10/30; ZeroHedge, 11/02]

October in one line: the index fell, the average stock rose. The Nasdaq 100 lost about 6.5% to 6.7% in October, its worst month since March 2025, while the Dow rose almost 2%. Sources put the S&P 500’s month at −0.9% to −1.2%. One source has the equal-weight S&P beating the cap-weighted index by the widest margin since April 2009. The S&P sits 3.05% below its October 6 record of 7,818.93. [CNBC, 11/02; Opening Bell Daily, 10/31; Portfolio Terminal, 10/30]

Oil: diplomacy takes $4 off Brent. January Brent traded between $108.26 and $112.41 overnight and was last near $108.37; December WTI near $99.31, after Friday’s 2% gain on a Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia and a 10%-plus October. Iran’s foreign minister said Qatar-mediated talks are progressing, while Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered commanders to prepare for renewed confrontation. The IRGC says 11 tankers have caught fire in Hormuz since October 25. OPEC+ held December quotas. [CNBC, 11/02; ZeroHedge, 11/02; Bloomberg, 11/02]

Rates and the Fed. The 10-year is near 4.92%, little changed, after falling 6.6 basis points last week to 4.93%; the 2-year fell 9.4 basis points to 4.59%. The long end is about 2 basis points lower this morning. Treasuries returned 2.3% in October, their best month of 2026. Fed funds futures price about 18 basis points of hikes by year-end, with a December hike still the base case. [ZeroHedge, 11/02; Yahoo Finance, ~8:50 AM ET]

Overseas. The Kospi rose 2.38% to 5,859.08 as Korean exports rose 93.7% year on year. The Nikkei rose 0.33% to 63,081.86, held back by Kioxia, down 14% to 17% after its operating-profit guide of ¥2 trillion missed the ¥2.35 trillion expected and NAND price growth slowed to the mid-20% range from 70%. Tokyo Electron rose 5%. China’s official manufacturing PMI was 49.3. In Europe, the STOXX 600 is near flat; Alstom fell as much as 31% on a margin cut. [CNBC, 11/02; ZeroHedge, 11/02; TradingKey, 11/02]

Currencies and commodities. The dollar index eased into a 101.42–101.99 range; EUR/USD rose 0.5% to 1.1214 and USD/JPY is near 157.7. Gold rose 0.6% to 1% to about $3,909–$3,941 after touching a one-year low of $3,870 Friday. Silver is back above $50. Bitcoin is near $77,800. The VIX is near 19.4. [ZeroHedge, 11/02; Yahoo Finance, ~8:50 AM ET; FX Leaders, 11/02]

[ANALYSIS] For three weeks we have described equities as paying two taxes: the cost of money and the cost of energy. This morning both are easing together, with WTI under $100 and the 10-year under 4.95%. If tech cannot hold a bounce under those conditions, the constraint is the cash audit, not macro.

MARKET TONE: CAUTIOUS RISK-ON. Cheaper oil and steady yields support a rebound, but Apple, Palantir, the midterms and Friday’s jobs report all land within five days.

2. Economic Calendar

Release / EventTime (ET)Why It Matters
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct, final)9:45 AMEstimate 56.0. Confirms the factory pace before ISM.
ISM Manufacturing (October)10:00 AMPrior 54.5; consensus 54.5 to 54.7. Prices paid was 77.9 last month, estimate 77.2. A lower prices index with oil under $100 would support the bond rally; a higher one keeps December in play.
Construction Spending (Sept)10:00 AMEstimate +0.3%. Housing has been the weak spot; a miss adds to growth worries.
Fed: Austan Goolsbee (Chicago)11:15 AMCalled September CPI “discouraging” in mid-October. Centrist; watch for a December lean after the 10–2 hold.
Senior Loan Officer Survey2:00 PMA credit read after October’s widening in high-yield spreads.
Earnings after the close4:05 / 4:30 PMPalantir (~4:05 PM), Apple (~4:30 PM), plus Vertex, ON Semiconductor, Roku, Williams and Diamondback.

The week ahead. Tuesday: midterm elections, JOLTS, AMD and Arista; prediction markets give Democrats more than 90% odds for the House. Wednesday: the Treasury quarterly refunding, ADP, ISM services, and Qualcomm, Arm, McDonald’s and Uber. Friday: October payrolls, with consensus near +55,000 to +62,000; JPMorgan and Goldman both forecast +75,000. [ZeroHedge, 11/02; Yahoo Finance, 11/01; CMC Markets, 11/01]

[ANALYSIS] Today’s ISM prices index is the first factory inflation read since Brent closed October near $117.64. A soft print with oil now falling would let the 2-year extend last week’s 9 basis point drop.

3. Earnings Spotlight

EL Estée Lauder · Consumer Staples / Beauty
+2.4% to +3.5% premarket
Fiscal first-quarter adjusted EPS $0.72 vs. $0.51 expected; revenue $3.72B vs. $3.65B (FactSet). [CNBC, ~7:42 AM ET]
Guidance: raised. Full-year sales and profit outlooks lifted. [CNBC, 11/02; Investing.com, 11/02]
Earnings Quality: CLEAN BEAT. A 41% EPS beat with a raise; GAAP figures were not in our sources.
[ANALYSIS] A decisive beat plus a raise is what the delta rule pays for. The modest move suggests the turnaround was partly priced; confirm at the open.
Wait for Open
IDXX IDEXX Laboratories · Health Care / Diagnostics
+2.6% to +6% premarket
Third-quarter EPS $4.01, up 18%; revenue $1.21B, up 10%, vs. $1.19B expected. [IDEXX 8-K, 11/02; GuruFocus, 11/02]
Guidance: raised. 2026 revenue to $4.741B–$4.767B and EPS to $14.96–$15.16, but the operating margin outlook was trimmed to 32.1%–32.3% from 32.3%–32.5%. One analysis puts the EPS midpoint about 0.7% below consensus. [IDEXX 8-K, 11/02; Chartmill, 11/02]
Earnings Quality: MIXED. Beat and raise, but a lower margin outlook.
[ANALYSIS] Health care led October’s rotation. A raise with a margin trim is a good quarter in a crowded group, not a re-rating.
Momentum Play
CHKP Check Point Software · Cybersecurity
−6% to −9% premarket
Third-quarter revenue $669.8M, down 1%, vs. estimates of $672M to $685.5M; adjusted EPS $2.49, in line. Net income fell 48%. Security subscriptions grew 11%. [StockTitan, 11/02; Securities.io, 11/02; Chartmill, 11/02]
Guidance: fourth-quarter revenue guided below expectations; the CEO said the turnaround is running behind schedule. [Chartmill, 11/02; BigGo Finance, 11/02]
Earnings Quality: MISS. Shrinking revenue and a 48% drop in net income.
[ANALYSIS] The same morning CrowdStrike gets an AI-security upgrade, Check Point shows the gap between the platforms gaining share and the legacy firewall vendor losing it.
Structural Issue
MAR Marriott International · Lodging
+2.6% after results, ~$409.65
Third-quarter adjusted EPS $3.02 vs. $2.84–$2.86; GAAP EPS $3.04. Revenue about $7.0B; sources disagree on whether it beat. Worldwide RevPAR rose 6.5% in constant dollars. [Marriott 8-K, 11/02; WTOP/AP, 11/02; 24/7 Wall St., 11/02]
Guidance: raised. Full-year global RevPAR growth now 4.5% to 5%. [Marriott 8-K, 11/02]
Earnings Quality: CLEAN BEAT. GAAP above adjusted.
[ANALYSIS] RevPAR up 6.5% with Brent above $100 for most of the quarter says travel demand absorbed the energy tax. Cheaper oil today helps the cost side.
Opportunity

After the close. Apple is expected to report EPS of about $1.98 to $1.99 on revenue of $113.2B to $113.6B; the focus is the foldable iPhone, memory costs and the first quarter under CEO John Ternus. Apple’s correlation to the Nasdaq 100 turned negative for the first time ever. Palantir is expected to report revenue of about $2.18B, up 85%, slower than the second quarter’s 93%, and adjusted EPS of about $0.41. [Yahoo Finance, 11/02; ZeroHedge, 11/02; Benzinga, 11/02]

4. Pre-Market Movers: Upside

MRVL Marvell Technology · Semiconductors
+1% to +3% premarket
Catalyst: agreed to buy Lumentum in an all-stock deal valuing it at about $115B. Lumentum holders get 4.5 Marvell shares each, about 33% of the combined company. Marvell cites a $550B addressable market, more than $1B a year of cost synergies and accretion in year one; closing is expected in the first half of 2028. [CNBC, 11/02]
Signal Check: Real, but sources disagree on the reaction: CNBC has Marvell +3% and Lumentum +2% before a halt; ZeroHedge has Marvell +1% and Lumentum −1%.
[ANALYSIS] In early October our research found the market punishing buyers and paying targets. A buyer rising on an all-stock deal breaks that pattern, but Marvell fell about 13% on October 29, so part of this is a rebound.
Wait for Open
CRWD CrowdStrike · Cybersecurity
+3% to +3.4% premarket
Catalyst: Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy from Hold. Analyst Brad Zelnick said the market is “still not fully appreciating the extent to which AI will expand the market for cybersecurity.” Palo Alto Networks is up about 2% in sympathy. [CNBC, ~7:42 AM ET]
Signal Check: Analyst-driven, no new company data. Real support from a rebounding tape.
Momentum Play
RIVN Rivian Automotive · Electric Vehicles
+3.8% premarket
Catalyst: UBS upgraded to Buy; analyst Joseph Spak cited the coming ramp of the R2 SUV. This follows Thursday’s raised delivery guidance and cut capex plan. [CNBC, ~7:42 AM ET]
Signal Check: Second catalyst in two sessions; the upgrade extends a move already under way.
Momentum Play
OKTA Okta · Identity Software
+2% to +2.7% premarket
Catalyst: S&P Dow Jones Indices will add Okta to the S&P 500, replacing Kenvue, effective Wednesday. [Investing.com, 11/02; ZeroHedge, 11/02]
Signal Check: Index buying is mechanical and is often absorbed by the effective date.
Wait for Open
INO Inovio Pharmaceuticals · Biotech
+50% to +224% premarket
Catalyst: FDA accelerated approval of Voceryq for recurrent respiratory papillomatosis. [ZeroHedge, 11/02; StockMarketWatch, 11/02; MarketChameleon, ~7:00 AM ET]
Signal Check: Real catalyst, but the move ranges from 50% to more than 200% depending on the timestamp: a thin, sub-$1 stock.
Avoid Chasing

5. Pre-Market Movers: Downside

XOM Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Valero · Energy
−1% to −1.5% premarket
Catalyst: oil fell about 4% on the Iran diplomacy report. Exxon is down 1.2%, Chevron nearly 1% and Valero 1.5%. [CNBC, ~7:42 AM ET]
Damage Assessment: Headline-driven. Goldman raised its December Brent forecast to $105 from $90 and estimates a risk premium near $27, so the premium can fall further if talks hold.
[ANALYSIS] Friday our research favored refiners on war-driven diesel margins. That call depends on the war; a credible deal removes the premium first.
Wait for Clarity
KOS Kosmos Energy · Oil Exploration
−7% premarket
Catalyst: third-quarter EPS missed estimates. [ZeroHedge, 11/02]
Damage Assessment: A miss compounded by falling crude; the size of the miss was not in our sources.
Wait for Clarity
FND Floor & Decor · Home Improvement Retail
−1.6% premarket
Catalyst: Goldman Sachs downgraded to Sell. [ZeroHedge, 11/02]
Damage Assessment: Housing exposure after record-weak housing data released in October (starts −5.2%, pending sales lowest since 2001). Structural pressure, modest move.
Wait for Clarity
AAPL Apple · Technology Hardware
−0.1% to −0.5% premarket
Catalyst: no news; positioning into fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close. Reviews of the foldable iPhone and touchscreen MacBooks are mixed, and higher memory costs are in focus. [Yahoo Finance, 11/02; ZeroHedge, 11/02]
Damage Assessment: None yet. Apple lagging a tech bounce is consistent with its newly negative correlation to the Nasdaq 100.
Wait for Clarity

6. Sector Rotation Radar

STRONG: Semiconductors and Memory, on a Rebound

Micron, SanDisk and Western Digital are up about 2%, AMD 2.2%, Nvidia 1% to 1.5% and SpaceX 3.2%, after the SOX fell 7.2% Friday. Vertiv and Bloom Energy are up 2.3% to 2.5%. Durability: low until Palantir and Apple report; Kioxia’s 14% to 17% drop on slowing NAND prices is a warning for memory. [CNBC, 11/02; ZeroHedge, 11/02]

WEAK: Energy

Oil and gas is the weakest STOXX 600 sector at −1.25%, and US majors and refiners are down 1% to 1.5%. Durability: depends on talks; Iran’s leadership is preparing for confrontation and tankers are still burning in Hormuz. [CNBC, 11/02; ZeroHedge, 11/02]

[ANALYSIS] Positioning supports a bounce: Goldman’s desk reports net leverage in the 10th percentile and an S&P forward P/E near 19 times, the 2026 low. A bounce from washed-out positioning still needs earnings to hold it. [ZeroHedge, 11/02]

7. Today’s Session Playbook

  1. Data: ISM manufacturing at 10:00 AM. The prices-paid index (prior 77.9) is the line to watch. A lower print plus WTI under $100 would extend the 2-year’s drop.
  2. Top stock story: Apple and Palantir after the close. Apple has to show memory costs did not dent margins; Palantir has to beat an 85% growth bar decisively, not just meet it.
  3. S&P 500 levels: Friday’s 7,580.07 close is support. Resistance is the October 16 close of 7,659.44, then the October 26 close of 7,676.77. A cash close above 7,659 would recover most of Friday’s drop.
  4. Event risk. Tuesday’s midterms, Iran talks against Khamenei’s confrontation order, Wednesday’s refunding sizes and Friday’s payrolls.
  5. Under-the-radar: Amazon. One quote source has Amazon closing Friday down only about 1.4% at $240.35, against a 7% drop before the open, while the S&P fell 1.8%. If that holds, buyers absorbed the cash-burn news faster than the index did. [Yahoo Finance, 10/30]
The Weekly Edge · [ANALYSIS] Hypothesis only, not a recommendation
Both taxes are easing at once; now the cash audit has to stand on its own

Friday our research set the test for Monday. A 10-year below 5% with Brent near $112 would let the equal-weight index keep beating the S&P; a 10-year back above 5% would leave nowhere to hide. The bond half held: the 10-year finished the week near 4.93% and the 2-year fell 9.4 basis points. The equity half did not. The S&P fell 1.82% and the Russell 2000 1.66%, barely better. On Friday a falling 10-year did not protect stocks, it only kept small caps from doing worse.

Scoring our October 30 calls against Friday’s close. Intel (Wait for Clarity) fell about 29%: right to wait. Reddit (Structural Issue) fell about 29% and Roblox (Structural Issue) about 18%: both right. Amazon (Wait for Clarity) closed down about 1.4% after trading down 7% before the open, per one quote source: waiting avoided selling the low. Arm and AMD (Wait for Clarity) were not found, but the SOX fell 7.2% and Nvidia 4.2%, so waiting was right on direction. Our S&P levels failed: the index broke both the 7,676.77 and 7,659.44 supports and closed at 7,580.07. Exxon, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Rivian, Twilio, Pinterest, Coinbase and Robinhood closes were not found in our sources.

This morning changes the setup. For three weeks we have argued that equities pay two taxes, the cost of money and the cost of energy. Today both are easing together: WTI is back under $100 and the 10-year is near 4.92%. That isolates the variable we have tracked since October 29, the cash audit. Microsoft passed it; Alphabet, Meta and Amazon did not.

The hypothesis: if tech holds a bounce through Apple and Palantir with oil under $100, Friday was positioning, not a verdict, and the 10th-percentile net leverage Goldman reports leaves room for a squeeze. If the Nasdaq fades back toward Friday’s lows with both taxes easing, the cash audit is the binding constraint and macro relief will not rescue the AI spenders. The test for Tuesday: Brent below $110 and the 10-year below 4.95% with the Nasdaq 100 holding at least half of today’s gain confirms the first branch; a fade confirms the second.

Sources

CNBC: futures, oil, Asia and Europe, October performance, Marvell/Lumentum, CrowdStrike, Rivian, Estée Lauder, energy stocks, memory and chip stocks, Kioxia. Yahoo Finance / Stocktwits: futures levels, 10-year, VIX, gold, bitcoin, Friday closes, Apple, Palantir, Alphabet, Intel, Amazon quote. ZeroHedge: futures, Iran diplomacy, oil ranges, Goldman oil forecast, rates, Fed pricing, FX, metals, premarket movers (Check Point, IDEXX, Inovio, Kosmos, Floor & Decor, Okta), positioning, calendar, weekly performance. StockTitan: Friday index closes, Intel, Check Point. Portfolio Terminal, Opening Bell Daily: S&P close and October performance. Bloomberg: oil and Iran diplomacy. Investing.com: Estée Lauder, Okta. IDEXX 8-K, GuruFocus, Chartmill: IDEXX results. Securities.io, BigGo Finance: Check Point. Marriott 8-K, WTOP/AP, 24/7 Wall St.: Marriott results. Benzinga, CMC Markets: earnings and economic calendar. TradingKey: Asia. FX Leaders: gold. StockMarketWatch, MarketChameleon: Inovio. All prices and figures are pre-market or prior-session snapshots (~8:55 AM ET) and may have changed by the open.

Important Disclaimer

FOR INFORMATIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. This document is prepared by Carlos Artiles and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security. All data is drawn from publicly available information believed reliable but not guaranteed. Pre-market prices and figures reflect conditions at the time of research and may have changed materially by the open. Verdict tags are analytical frameworks, not trade signals. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed professional before acting.