Palantir grew 96% and raised its year, yet trades down about 7% to 8% on slower bookings. Apple set a September-quarter record and falls about 4% on a lower margin guide. Overnight, a limited US strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island lifted crude about 1% to 2%.
Research compiled from overnight and pre-market reporting (~1:40 to ~9:00 AM ET). Monday our research set two tests: the equal-weight index had to beat the Nasdaq 100, and the chip bounce had to hold. The first passed by more than two points; the second failed. This morning the question moves from whether raises get paid to which forward number gets audited.

At a Glance: What Moves the Tape

  • Futures split: Dow futures down about 0.3% to 0.7%, S&P 500 about flat to −0.2%, Nasdaq 100 up about 0.2% to 0.4% on a chip bounce before AMD reports tonight. [CNBC, 11/03; FXStreet, 11/03; TradingKey, 11/03]
  • Raised and sold: Palantir down about 6.5% to 8% after raising its 2026 guide to $8.53B; total contract value grew only 6%. [Palantir 8-K, 11/02; CNBC, 11/03; StockTitan, 11/03]
  • Apple margin guide: record $114.5B quarter, but a 45% to 46% gross margin guide vs 47.9% reported; shares down about 4% to 4.5%. [Apple 8-K, 11/02; CNBC, 11/03; TradingKey, 11/03]
  • Oil rebounds: Brent about $105 to $107, up 1% to 2%, after a US strike on Qeshm Island; an Iranian official told Reuters a deal is “far off.” [The National, 11/03; Cornerstone Futures, 11/03; Admiral Markets, 11/03]
  • Midterms tonight: all 435 House seats and about a third of the Senate; first polls close at 7:00 PM ET. JOLTS at 10:00 AM; AMD, Arista, Amgen and Booking after the close. [StockTitan, 11/03; Saxo, 11/03; TradingKey, 11/03]

1. Macro Pulse

S&P 500 Fut
Flat to −0.2%
Near 7,560 to 7,578
Nasdaq 100 Fut
+0.2% to +0.4%
Chips bounce pre-AMD
10-Yr Yield
~4.90% to 4.91%
About flat
Brent (Jan)
~$105 to $107
+1% to +2% on Qeshm
VIX
~21.15
9-day at 22.46

Monday’s close: the rotation returned. The S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40, its third straight loss and lowest close since July 31. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.39% to 27,989.82, more than 10% below its October 6 record, a correction. [CappNotes, 11/02; Portfolio Terminal, 11/02; CNBC, 11/03]

Breadth. The Dow rose 0.41% to 51,983.98 and the equal-weight S&P 500 0.76%, beating the cap-weighted index by more than a point. Mid caps rose 0.80%; the Russell 2000 slipped 0.21%. Gainers beat decliners 1,027 to 473. [CappNotes, 11/02]

Sectors. Consumer discretionary rose 2.41%, financials 1.86% and materials 1.76%; airlines rose 3.8% to 4.8%. Energy fell 3.96% and technology 2.95%. The S&P was up 1% at 10:42 AM before the AI names reversed it. [CappNotes, 11/02; StockTitan, 11/02]

The AI audit, Monday. Oracle fell 8.76% after filing to sell $10B of stock and $10B of notes; its 5-year CDS sits near 292bp. Marvell fell 12.72% and Lumentum 18.59% on the all-stock deal; AMD fell 7.52% and Micron 5.78%. [CappNotes, 11/02; StockTitan, 11/02]

Futures this morning. At 7:58 AM Dow futures were down 359 points, or 0.7%, S&P 500 futures 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.4%. Later quotes show the Dow down about 0.3% and the S&P near 7,578, about flat. Russell 2000 futures were not quoted in our sources. [CNBC, 11/03; FXStreet, 11/03]

Bonds. Monday the 10-year fell 3.5bp to 4.893% and the 30-year 4.1bp to 5.268%, while the 2-year held at 4.58%. This morning the 10-year is near 4.90% to 4.91%. December hike odds were about 72% early Monday. [CappNotes, 11/02; CNBC, 11/03; SIA Wealth, 11/03]

Oil: deal hopes, then a strike. Brent settled Monday at $104.77, down 7.63%, and WTI at $96.46, down 7.36%, its biggest drop since July. Overnight the WSJ reported a limited US strike on Qeshm Island, at the mouth of Hormuz. [CappNotes, 11/02; Newsquawk, 11/03; The National, 11/03]

Iran: both sides talk, one side strikes. US officials called the strike defensive, against air defenses, radars and drone sites, not a return to major combat. Trump said “No” Monday when asked about striking after the vote. A senior Iranian official told Reuters a deal is far off. [Cornerstone Futures, 11/03; Saxo, 11/03; Newsquawk, 11/03]

[ANALYSIS] Brent recovered about $1 to $2 of Monday’s $8.66 drop. The market reads Qeshm as the war continuing at low intensity, not a talks breakdown. Brent is still under $110.

Overseas. The Kospi fell about 3.3% to 3.6% and Taiwan about 3.6% on chip and Apple contagion; ASML fell 3.4% early. The RBA hiked 25bp to 4.85% on a 6–3 vote. The DAX is down about 0.6%; the FTSE is up about 0.7%. [CNBC, 11/03; Saxo, 11/03; Newsquawk, 11/03; SIA Wealth, 11/03]

Gold, dollar, crypto, volatility. Gold rose 1.49% Monday to $3,956.90 and trades near $3,909 to $3,925 this morning. The dollar index is up about 0.1%, below 102; EUR/USD is just under 1.12 and USD/JPY near 158. Bitcoin is near $76,600 to $77,400. [CappNotes, 11/02; SIA Wealth, 11/03; Saxo, 11/03; TradingKey, 11/03]

Volatility. The VIX rose 8.91% Monday to 21.15. Nine-day volatility is 22.46, above spot; options price about 0.86% for today and 1.85% through Friday’s payrolls. [CappNotes, 11/02; Saxo, 11/03]

MARKET TONE: MIXED. Chips bounce and the Dow slips. Beats and raises are being sold in software and Apple, and the Qeshm strike puts the war premium back into oil on election day.

2. Economic Calendar

Release / EventTime (ET)Why It Matters
JOLTS job openings (Sept)10:00 AMConsensus 7.164M, prior 7.079M. A drop toward 7.0M feeds the growth fear the long end already prices; a rise supports a December hike.
Factory orders (Sept)10:00 AMConsensus +1.2%, prior +0.1%. Second-tier, but Monday’s ISM production hit 59.0, its highest since November 2021.
Fed speakersNone scheduledNo Fed speakers on our calendars. Hammack and Cook dissented for a hike on October 28; the next decision is December 9.
Midterm elections: first polls close7:00 PM to 8:00 PMRepublicans hold the House 218–214 and Senate 53–47. SocGen sees a Democratic sweep as likely, which it says could flatten the long end.
AMD, Arista, Amgen, Booking (after close)4:00 PM onwardAMD fell 7.52% Monday; its call is at 5:00 PM. It must show AI revenue outrunning what the stock already prices.
Rest of week: refunding, ADP and ISM services (Wed), payrolls (Fri)All weekWednesday’s refunding sets Treasury supply with the 30-year near 5.27%. Payrolls consensus was +55K to +62K vs +29K in September.

[ANALYSIS] Monday’s ISM showed prices paid down to 75.2 from 77.9, and construction spending fell 1.9%, the steepest drop since April 2020. Cooler prices plus weaker housing let the long end fall. [CappNotes, 11/02; StockTitan, 11/02; XTB, 11/03]

3. Earnings Spotlight

PLTR Palantir Technologies · AI Software
About −6.5% to −8% premarket
Reported: revenue up 96% to $2.313B, a record growth rate as a public company; adjusted EPS $0.44 vs about $0.41 expected. US commercial revenue rose 148% to $984M, above US government revenue for the first time. [Palantir 8-K, 11/02; TradingKey, 11/03; Fortune, 11/02]
Guidance: raised. 2026 revenue $8.530B to $8.534B, up 91%, nine points above the prior guide; fourth quarter about $2.65B. [GuruFocus, 11/03; CNBC, 11/03]
Earnings Quality: BEAT, SOLD Total contract value rose only 6% to $2.918B, and 11% in US commercial. GAAP results were not in our sources. [CNBC via William Blair, 11/03]
[ANALYSIS] A 96% grower with 6% bookings growth is the gap the market is pricing. Revenue is the past; contract value is the next year.
Wait for Clarity
AAPL Apple · Consumer Hardware
About −4% to −4.5% premarket
Reported: fiscal fourth-quarter revenue up 12% to $114.5B vs about $113.5B expected; diluted EPS $2.10, up 14%, vs about $1.98 to $2.00. Records for September-quarter revenue, iPhone and EPS, and an all-time Services record. [Apple 8-K, 11/02; MacRumors, 11/02]
Guidance: gross margin 45% to 46% for the December quarter vs 47.9% reported. Apple warned memory costs will keep rising; iPad sales missed. [Apple 8-K, 11/02; CNBC via Reuters, 11/03]
Earnings Quality: MIXED Tariff refunds added $0.05 to EPS and about 1 point to margin. Excluding them, EPS was about $2.05, still a beat.
[ANALYSIS] This is the memory cycle as a cost. What lifted SK Hynix and Micron in October now taxes the largest buyer of chips.
Wait for Clarity
PFE Pfizer · Pharmaceuticals
About flat to slightly higher premarket
Reported: adjusted EPS $0.87 vs $0.73 expected; GAAP EPS $0.56. Revenue $16.58B vs $15.87B, even as Paxlovid fell 63%. A seventh straight EPS beat. [Pfizer 8-K, 11/03; CNBC, 11/03; 24/7 Wall St, 11/03]
Guidance: raised. 2026 revenue $62B to $64B from $60.5B to $62.5B; adjusted EPS $2.95 to $3.05. [Pfizer 8-K, 11/03; Mugglehead, 11/03]
Earnings Quality: ADJUSTED BEAT A 19% adjusted beat and a $1.5B revenue raise; GAAP EPS runs well below adjusted.
[ANALYSIS] A beat and a raise at a flat open is the delta rule: health care set records in October, so the raise was partly priced.
Wait for Open

4. Pre-Market Movers: Upside

LSCC Lattice Semiconductor · FPGAs
About +10.5% premarket
Catalyst: record revenue of $291.0M, up 118%; non-GAAP EPS $0.72. Fourth-quarter guide about $335M, up about 130%; management said 2027 revenue should grow at least 60%. [Lattice 8-K, 11/02; StockTitan, 11/03; TradingKey, 11/03]
Signal Check: Real. But GAAP EPS was $0.08 against $0.72 adjusted, a wide gap worth reading before paying up.
[ANALYSIS] This is what gets paid today: a forward number, 2027 growth, not just the quarter. Palantir gave the year and was sold; Lattice gave next year.
Momentum Play
RVTY Revvity · Life Science Tools
About +7% to +10% premarket
Catalyst: a third-quarter beat and a higher full-year pro forma adjusted EPS guide of $5.40 to $5.45, from $5.30 to $5.40. [CNBC, 11/03; Yahoo Finance, 11/03]
Signal Check: Real. A raise at both ends of the range, from a company outside the AI trade.
[ANALYSIS] IDEXX rose 21.85% Monday on the same profile. Outside AI, a raise is still paid in full.
Opportunity
HLIT · AEHR Harmonic · Aehr Test Systems · Video Networks · Chip Test
HLIT about +16%, near $11.87; AEHR about +15.6%
Catalyst: Harmonic revenue rose 64% to $148.8M and it raised 2026 revenue to $545M to $555M. Aehr posted record revenue of $33.0M, up 200%, and raised its year to $150M, the top of its range. [StockTitan, 11/03; Benzinga, 11/03]
Signal Check: Real results, but small caps with thin pre-market volume.
[ANALYSIS] Two raisers, both paid. The open decides how much of a 15% gap holds.
Momentum Play
AMD · NVDA · MU AMD · Nvidia · Micron · Semiconductors
AMD +2.2% to +3%, NVDA +1.4% to +1.6%, MU +2.3%
Catalyst: no company news; a bounce ahead of AMD’s results tonight. Monday AMD fell 7.52% and Micron 5.78%, and the Kospi fell more than 3% overnight. [StockTitan, 11/03; TradingKey, 11/03; CappNotes, 11/02]
Signal Check: Positioning. Monday’s chip bounce failed by the close.
[ANALYSIS] A second pre-market bounce after a failed first one is a test, not a signal. AMD tonight is the evidence.
Wait for Open

5. Pre-Market Movers: Downside

SHOP Shopify · E-Commerce Software
About −15% to −19% premarket
Catalyst: revenue rose 32% to $3.742B vs about $3.75B expected; non-GAAP EPS $0.49 beat by $0.03. Gross merchandise volume rose 29% to $119.15B vs $120.08B expected, and subscription revenue missed. [Shopify 8-K, 11/03; 24/7 Wall St, 11/03; GuruFocus, 11/03]
Damage Assessment: One quarter of a slight miss, not a broken business. The fourth-quarter guide calls for low-thirties revenue growth and high-twenties gross profit growth. [Shopify 8-K, 11/03]
[ANALYSIS] 32% growth and a 15%-plus drop: when the stock prices a beat, an in-line quarter is a miss.
Wait for Clarity
DT Dynatrace · Observability Software
About −13% to −17% premarket
Catalyst: a beat on both lines, ARR up 16% to $2.21B and $1B more in buybacks, but third-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $0.44 to $0.45 vs $0.48 expected. [Dynatrace 8-K, 11/03; Investing.com, 11/03]
Damage Assessment: Margin, not demand. Full-year revenue guidance of $2.39B to $2.41B is above the $2.33B consensus, while full-year EPS of $1.88 to $1.90 is below $1.91. [Investing.com, 11/03; Seeking Alpha, 11/03]
[ANALYSIS] More revenue at lower margin is the Apple trade in software: the market charges for the cost of growth.
Wait for Clarity
IT · ZBRA Gartner · Zebra Technologies · IT Research · Enterprise Hardware
Both down more than 6% premarket
Catalyst: Gartner beat and raised full-year EPS and revenue guidance above expectations. Zebra posted adjusted EPS of $4.95 vs $4.89 on $1.61B revenue vs $1.57B, but guided free cash flow of at least $1B vs $1.02B expected. [CNBC, 11/03]
Damage Assessment: Ambiguous. Gartner’s new ranges were not in our sources, and Zebra’s cash miss is about 2%.
[ANALYSIS] Two beats sold more than 6% each. Gartner’s drop is the most telling, as AI is seen threatening research seats.
Wait for Clarity

6. Sector Rotation Radar

STRONG: Cyclicals and Small-Cap Raisers

Monday consumer discretionary rose 2.41%, financials 1.86% and materials 1.76%, and airlines rose up to 4.8% as oil fell 7%. This morning Revvity, Harmonic and Aehr are up 7% to 16% on raises. Durability: tied to Brent staying under $110 after the vote. [CappNotes, 11/02; StockTitan, 11/02; StockTitan, 11/03]

WEAK: Application Software

Palantir, Shopify, Dynatrace and Gartner are down about 6% to 19% after beats; Oracle fell 8.76% Monday. Durability: high. The audit has moved to forward numbers, bookings, volume and margin, that a single quarter cannot fix. [CNBC, 11/03; StockTitan, 11/03; CappNotes, 11/02]

[ANALYSIS] The equal-weight index beat the Nasdaq 100 by 2.15 points Monday. With the Nasdaq 100 in a correction and the Dow near flat for the week, the rotation is back to doing its job.

7. Today’s Session Playbook

  1. Data: JOLTS at 10:00 AM. Consensus 7.164M. A weak print adds to the growth fear holding the 10-year under 4.95%; a strong one firms the roughly 72% December hike odds.
  2. Top story: raised and sold. Palantir, Shopify and Dynatrace all beat and fall. AMD tonight must show forward demand, not just a beat; Monday it fell 7.52%.
  3. S&P 500 levels: Monday closed at 7,541.40. Support is 7,527.67, Friday’s low; resistance is 7,580.07, Friday’s close, then about 7,650, Monday’s morning high.
  4. Event risk: the count and Qeshm. Polls close from 7:00 PM ET. Options price only 0.86% for today but 1.85% through Friday; a decisive result removes some of that premium.
  5. Under-the-radar: the 9-day VIX. It sits at 22.46, above the spot VIX at 21.15. The premium is in Wednesday and Friday, refunding and payrolls, not in today.
The Weekly Edge · [ANALYSIS] Hypothesis only, not a recommendation
The raise rule has a new clause: in AI software the market no longer pays the guide, it pays the forward input, bookings, volume and margin

Monday our research set the test: if Brent held under $110 and the equal-weight index beat the Nasdaq 100, the rotation resumed; if chips faded and Palantir only met, Monday was short covering. Both happened. Brent settled at $104.77 and the equal-weight index rose 0.76% while the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.39%. Chips faded: AMD fell 7.52%. Palantir did more than meet, and it is still down 7% to 8%.

Our Monday calls: IDEXX, Opportunity, rose 21.85%; right. Estee Lauder, Momentum Play, fell 4.08%; wrong. The chips, Wait for Open, faded after a 1% index rally: AMD −7.52%, Micron −5.78%, Western Digital −7.52%, Nvidia −1.26%; waiting was right. Oracle, Wait for Clarity, fell 8.76% once $10B of notes joined the stock sale; right. Check Point, Structural Issue, fell 6.98%; right. Marvell and Lumentum, Wait for Clarity, fell 12.72% and 18.59%; right. Exxon, Wait for Clarity, fell 4.05%. The S&P closed at 7,541.40, below our first support and above the second. [CappNotes, 11/02; StockTitan, 11/02]

The hypothesis now: we have tracked the raise rule since October 20, and it still pays outside AI, as IDEXX and Revvity show. Inside AI software it has a new clause. Palantir raised its year by nine points and fell on 6% bookings growth; Shopify grew 32% and fell on volume; Apple and Dynatrace fell on margin. The market prices the input to next year, not the guide for this one. The test is AMD tonight: a beat without forward data-center demand is sold; a forward number that outruns the price is paid. If the equal-weight index beats the Nasdaq 100 again with Brent under $110, the rotation has a second day. Investors, and we, should resist reading a record quarter as a reason to buy.

Sources

CappNotes and Portfolio Terminal: Monday close, breadth, sectors, single-stock moves, yields, oil, gold, dollar, VIX, bitcoin, FedWatch and ISM. StockTitan: Monday intraday path, construction spending, Tuesday futures and pre-market movers. CNBC: futures, 10-year yield, oil, Kospi and Taiwan, pre-market movers, Pfizer, Revvity, Gartner and Zebra. TradingKey: futures, Apple, Palantir, Lattice, chips, gold, bitcoin and the earnings calendar. FXStreet, Admiral Markets and SIA Wealth: futures, dollar, gold, Europe, Brent and midterm context. Saxo: Qeshm strike, Asia, RBA, FX, Treasuries, VIX, options pricing and poll times. Newsquawk, The National and Cornerstone Futures: Qeshm strike, Iran statements and oil. XTB: calendar and consensus. Fortune, GuruFocus, MacRumors, Mugglehead, 24/7 Wall St, Investing.com, Seeking Alpha, Benzinga and Yahoo Finance: earnings detail. Apple, Palantir, Pfizer, Shopify, Dynatrace and Lattice 8-K filings. All prices and figures are pre-market or prior-session snapshots (~1:40 to ~9:00 AM ET) and may have changed by the open.

Important Disclaimer

FOR INFORMATIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. This document is prepared by Carlos Artiles and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security. All data is drawn from publicly available information believed reliable but not guaranteed. Pre-market prices and figures reflect conditions at the time of research and may have changed materially by the open. Verdict tags are analytical frameworks, not trade signals. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed professional before acting.