Dow Futures Jump 600 Points as Oil Slides, but Nvidia Sinks on a Board Probe of Its CEO

1. Macro Pulse

Friday’s close: a rebound inside a bad week. The S&P 500 gained 0.31% to 7,376.86, the Nasdaq Composite 1.09% to 24,579.42, and the Dow fell 0.46% to 51,285.73, so the three indexes ended the week roughly where Thursday’s rout left them. Technology led with a 1.45% gain, and breadth was weak. Thursday had been the damage: the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52% to 24,315.00, its biggest one-day drop in 19 months, with the semiconductor index down about 12% by one count, and Reuters put the lost Nasdaq value near $2.5 trillion. Futures this morning point higher, with Dow contracts up about 0.6% and S&P 500 contracts up 0.35% to 0.6% depending on the hour. [Closing Print, 11/06; CNBC, 11/05; Investrade, 11/06; Yahoo Finance, 11/09]

Bonds read the jobs report as a hike report. October payrolls rose 165,000 against a consensus of roughly 60,000 to 70,000, unemployment slipped to 4.1% from an expected 4.2%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month (3.1% year over year), and August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000. The 10-year rose more than 2 basis points to about 4.86%, the 2-year about 4 basis points to roughly 4.52%, and the 30-year sits near 5.26%. The dollar index gained 0.7% to about 102.2. December hike odds rose to roughly 77% to 79%, from about 66% Thursday, and LSEG puts them near 80%. [CNBC, 11/06; Morningstar, 11/06; Analytics Insight, 11/06]

[ANALYSIS] Strong hiring with wages still below 3.7% inflation is a hike case without a wage spiral. That helps explain why yields rose only modestly while a hike became likelier: the market is pricing a Fed that tightens into an AI repricing, which raises the discount rate on the stocks that just fell.

Overseas, the chip rebound is global. The Nikkei gained about 3.3% to roughly 59,300 in early trade, the Kospi added about 1.4% to roughly 5,137 after Friday’s 6.02% close lower, and the Hang Seng edged up about 0.2% to roughly 24,500. SK Hynix rose about 4.6% and Samsung about 2.4%, though a Goldman basket of AI memory stocks is still down about 51% from its June peak. We did not find reliable European or currency quotes this morning. [investingLive, 11/09; Sitka Sentinel/AP, 11/09]

Oil: restraint and risk in the same headline. Brent is near $97 to $98 and WTI near $90 to $91 after Brent fell about 16% last week. Trump told CNN new Iran strikes are “highly unlikely” if Iran signs a “very strong agreement,” while Secretary of State Rubio said talks have made little headway, ships are still being attacked in and near the Strait of Hormuz, and a drone attack halted Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field. Trump meets Qatar’s prime minister today on mediation. Gold settled near $4,075 Friday, up roughly 4.5% to 5% on the week. [CNBC, 11/09; RTE, 11/09; Investrade, 11/06; Kitco, 11/06]

2. Economic Calendar

[ANALYSIS] Options were pricing a move of about 2.5% in the S&P 500 through Friday, a wide band that covers CPI, CoreWeave on Tuesday, Applied Materials and Nebius this week, and Cisco on Thursday after the close. Nvidia reports November 17, just outside the window. One preview says the bond market is closed Wednesday for Veterans Day while stocks trade. [TheStreet, 11/09; Stocktwits, 11/08; HeyGoTrade, 11/09]

3. Earnings Spotlight

Also reporting. monday.com, Virtus, Radiant and Barrick report before the open, and Take-Two, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Zeta Global and Occidental after the close. CoreWeave, Nebius, Applied Materials and Cisco follow later this week. [247WallSt, 11/06; Stocktitan, 11/06]

4. Pre-Market Movers: Upside

5. Pre-Market Movers: Downside

6. Sector Rotation Radar

[ANALYSIS] Lower oil is the cleanest relief for rate-sensitive stocks this week, but it did not stop the Nasdaq from falling 5.5% on Thursday, which says the AI repricing is now more about policy and payback than about the cost of money.

7. Today’s Session Playbook

1. Nvidia and the index. A roughly 5% drop in the largest stock weighs on the Nasdaq 100 at the open. Watch whether the rest of semiconductors hold their Friday gains without it.
2. Oil headlines. Trump’s meeting with Qatar’s prime minister and any Hormuz incident can move Brent by several dollars; Brent near $97 to $98 is the level to watch.
3. S&P 500 level: Friday’s 7,376.86 close is the line. A hold above it with the VIX falling from 25.64 would suggest the bounce can extend into CPI; a close below it would put Thursday’s low back in play.
4. Event risk is tomorrow. October CPI at 8:30 AM Tuesday, with December hike odds near 80% and Waller and Bowman speaking the same day; CoreWeave reports Tuesday.
5. Under-the-radar: NRG and Constellation. Both reported beats this morning; NRG’s $4B asset sale funds buybacks, and Constellation’s second guidance raise is the test of the post-midterm power sell-off. [NRG 8-K, 11/09; Constellation 8-K, 11/09]

Our last note said the new AI audit was about permission, and that gridlock would be a bid for bonds and gold rather than for AI. Thursday confirmed the first half harshly: the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52%, the semiconductor index roughly 12%, and about $2.5 trillion of value disappeared, with the midterm result and doubts about payback on about $900 billion of AI spending cited as triggers. The second half needs an amendment. The bond bid did not appear: the 10-year closed Friday at about 4.86%, almost unchanged from 4.89% on Wednesday, and gold finished near $4,075, close to Wednesday’s $4,070. Only oil moved, with Brent down about 16% on the week.

The tape also tested the rotation we described Wednesday, when the Dow led and chips fell. It was real, but it was two days long. The Dow is down 0.46% Friday and about 4% below Wednesday’s 53,356, so the “leadership change” was a one-session event, while the semiconductor weakness we flagged became the whole story. Premarket calls from last week are not scored here because we did not find a published list for Friday.

The hypothesis now: the AI trade has two new discounts, one for policy and one for people. Policy comes from a Congress that can slow data-center permitting, and people from the board investigation at Nvidia, which turns the market’s anchor stock into a headline risk before its November 17 report. Add a Fed that markets now see hiking in December with odds near 80%, and the discount rate is rising while the cash-flow story is being questioned. The test is tomorrow: a CPI at or below +0.3% lets the bounce survive, while a hot print with 165,000 payrolls behind it would make December close to certain and would hit the stocks that just fell the hardest.