Jensen Huang resigned Thursday and Nvidia fell as much as 14% before closing down 4.34% at $166.19, with CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO. The bigger message came from the bond market: the $25B 30-year auction tailed at 5.441%, the third tailed sale of the week, and the 10-year is holding near 5.1%. October PPI rose 0.3%, below the 0.4% consensus, while Cerebras jumps about 16% and Cisco slips despite a raised outlook.
Research compiled pre-market (~8:55 AM ET). Yesterday our research said the market had started pricing the concentration of the AI trade as a risk, separate from AI demand. Thursday took that to its extreme: the founder left, the stock halved its intraday loss, and rivals rallied. The index barely moved (S&P 500 −0.35%), but small caps fell 1.66% as yields climbed. Futures are mixed this morning after the PPI print, and a Microsoft 365 outage in its second day is today's other single-stock drag.

At a Glance: What Moves the Tape

  • Huang out, Kress in: Nvidia’s 8-K named CFO Colette Kress interim CEO and Harvey C. Jones the board’s first Chair; the stock closed −4.34% at $166.19 after a 14% intraday drop and is up about 2% to 2.7% premarket. Earnings stay on November 17. [SEC 8-K, 11/12; Yahoo Finance, 11/12; Investinglive, 11/13]
  • Third straight tail: the $25B 30-year sold at 5.441%, a 0.4bp tail, with bid-to-cover 2.36 (lowest since June) and dealers holding 11.39%. All three of the week’s coupon auctions tailed, the first time since May. [Here Rockhill, 11/13]
  • PPI cooler on the headline, not underneath: October final demand +0.3% vs +0.4% expected, 6.5% year over year vs 6.6% (highest since November 2022); September revised up to +1.4%. The core ex food, energy and trade rose 0.5% for a second month. [Seeking Alpha, 11/13; TokenPost, 11/13; ActionForex, 11/13]
  • AI revenue paid, AI growth questioned: Cerebras is up about 16% on a 70% core revenue jump and a raised guide; Applied Materials guided Q1 to $11.1B vs $10.89B; Cisco raised its full-year outlook and is still down about 2% to 3%. [CNBC, 11/12; Quartz, 11/13; Investing.com, 11/13; Stocktwits, 11/13]
  • Oil back in the tape: Brent settled $95.82 (+3.3%) after Houthi attacks on Saudi pipeline and Yanbu facilities; it sits near $95.41 this morning, still down about 2.5% on the week. [Reuters via Investing.com, 11/12–13]

1. Macro Pulse

S&P 500 Fut
~flat
−0.1% to +0.1%
Nasdaq 100 Fut
−0.3% to flat
MSFT drag
10-Yr Treasury
~5.13%
Thu high 5.10%
Brent
~$95.41
Thu +3.3%
VIX
18.7
Thu +6.9%

Thursday’s close: a quiet index over a loud day. The S&P 500 fell 0.35% to 7,592.40, 2.90% below its October 6 record of 7,818.93. The Dow lost 189.40 points (−0.36%) to 52,297.09, the Nasdaq Composite 0.39% to 25,366.09, and the Russell 2000 1.66% to 2,799.06. Breadth was poor: only 123 S&P 500 members rose and 377 fell. AMD and Broadcom rallied on hopes of taking share from Nvidia. [Yahoo Finance, 11/12; WTOP/AP, 11/12]

Futures are mixed after PPI. Snapshots differ by time of check: S&P 500 futures range from −0.1% to +0.12%, Nasdaq 100 futures from −0.3% to flat, and Dow futures are near unchanged. Microsoft (−2.3%) is the main index drag and Nvidia (+2% to +2.7%) the main support. [Invezz, 11/13; Investing.com, 11/13; Forbes, 11/13]

Rates: the week the auctions failed to find a bid. The 30-year sold at 5.441% with a 0.4bp tail; indirect bidders took 68.1%, the lowest since August, and the new bond carries a 5.375% coupon, the highest since February 2001. The 10-year touched 5.10% Thursday and is quoted near 5.13% this morning. CME FedWatch put a December quarter-point hike at about 90.8% on Thursday; Waller has said 50bp should be considered if core inflation keeps printing 0.3% or higher. [Here Rockhill, 11/13; Vistapglobal, 11/12; Rio Times, 11/13; TradingKey via CME, 11/12]

[ANALYSIS] The headline PPI miss is a small relief, but the 0.5% core reading and the upward September revision keep the December hike priced. The sharper signal is the auctions: three tails in three days at 5%-plus yields says the buyer base is thinning at the long end, which matters more for equity multiples than any single CEO.

Overseas: Asia’s chip bounce faded. The Nikkei closed up about 0.5% at 61,142.35, the Kospi fell about 1% to 5,290.53 after topping 5,500 intraday, and the Hang Seng was down roughly 1.5% near 23,640 in late trade. European shares opened lower on doubts over the AI boom after the Nvidia exit. [MLQ, 11/13; Investinglive, 11/13; Yahoo Finance/Reuters, 11/13]

Dollar up, gold and Bitcoin down. The dollar index is near 103.1 to 103.2, spot gold has fallen about 2.5% to roughly $3,880 to $3,925, and Bitcoin dropped as low as $67,652, below its 200-week moving average. Oil holds Thursday’s jump: Brent ~$95.41 and WTI near $88.74 after Houthi strikes on a pumping station on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, a Yanbu facility and an Aramco building in Riyadh. Iran’s military said four tankers were hit in Hormuz, unverified. [Rio Times, 11/13; CoinDesk, 11/13; Reuters via Investing.com, 11/12–13]

MARKET TONE: MIXED, with rates as the referee. Nvidia’s leadership shock is being absorbed, but a 5.1% 10-year, a firmer dollar and falling gold say the bond market is still tightening conditions into a Friday close.

2. Economic Calendar

Release / EventTime (ET)Why It Matters
PPI, Final Demand (Oct): released8:30 AM+0.3% vs +0.4% consensus; 6.5% YoY vs 6.6%; September revised to +1.4% from +1.3%. A softer headline eases pipeline pressure from energy, but it arrives after a hot CPI.
PPI ex Food, Energy & Trade (Oct): released8:30 AM+0.5% MoM for a second month; core annual reported at 4.9% to 5.0%, depending on the measure. This is the number that keeps a December hike near 90%.
Fed speakersTodayNo scheduled remarks were confirmed in our research. Recent leans: Logan wants at least two more quarter-point hikes, Hammack prefers smaller, more frequent increases, Waller has floated 50bp.
Nvidia Q3 FY2027 earningsTue Nov 17The first report under an interim CEO. Guidance and any succession detail will set the tone for AI hardware into year-end.
FOMC decisionDec 8–9December quarter-point hike priced near 90.8%; a 50bp move is the tail risk if core prints stay at 0.3% or above.

[ANALYSIS] With PPI out of the way, the session has no scheduled macro catalyst. That leaves the 10-year near 5.1%, oil headlines from the Gulf and weekend gap risk as the drivers, a mix that usually favors lighter positioning into the close. [Seeking Alpha, 11/13; ActionForex, 11/13; FX.co, 11/13; Tradingandinvestmentnews/Reuters, 11/12]

3. Earnings Spotlight

CBRS Cerebras Systems · Semiconductors / AI Compute
+16% to +19% premarket
Q3 core revenue $230.9M, up 70% year over year, vs. $214.7M expected. GAAP revenue rose 55% to $210.8M, slightly below the $214.7M FactSet estimate. EPS figures were not found in our research. [CNBC, 11/12; Quartz, 11/13]
Guidance: raised. Full-year core revenue $940M–$960M from $880M–$890M; Q4 core revenue $310M–$330M vs. $271M expected (LSEG); management expects to triple revenue in 2027. A Microsoft deal is cited as a driver of the rally.
Earnings Quality: ADJUSTED BEAT. The beat is on core revenue, a company measure; GAAP revenue missed slightly, and growth slowed from 103% in Q2.
[ANALYSIS] The stock had lost about 47% since its May debut, so the bar was low and the Q4 guide cleared it by about 18%. That is the delta rule paying a cheap stock with a named hyperscaler customer. Thin liquidity and a decelerating growth rate argue for a tight stop.
Momentum Play
AMAT Applied Materials · Semiconductor Equipment
Flat to +3% (after hours/premarket)
Fiscal Q4 2026 non-GAAP EPS $4.16 (+92% YoY) vs. $4.06 expected; revenue $10.41B vs. about $10.30B. Fiscal 2026 revenue $34.45B (+21%), non-GAAP EPS $12.89 (+37%). [Investing.com, 11/12; Crypto Briefing, 11/12]
Guidance: Q1 FY2027 revenue $11.1B ±$500M vs. $10.89B consensus; non-GAAP EPS $4.35 ±$0.20 vs. roughly $4.23–$4.26.
Earnings Quality: CLEAN BEAT, with guidance above the Street on both lines. Consensus EPS was cited between $4.05 and $4.13, so the size of the beat depends on the source.
[ANALYSIS] A beat-and-raise that only earns a flat-to-3% reaction is a stock that ran 41% this year into the print. Equipment demand is the part of the AI chain that does not depend on any one chip designer’s leadership, which is why it held up through Thursday’s Nvidia shock.
Wait for Open
CSCO Cisco Systems · Networking
−1.7% to −3% premarket
Fiscal Q1 2027 revenue about $18.5B (+24% YoY) vs. about $18.09B expected; non-GAAP EPS $1.40. Gross margin 65.6%, record operating margin 37.8%. AI infrastructure orders $4.0B in the quarter. [Cisco 8-K, 11/12; Yahoo Finance, 11/12]
Guidance: raised. FY2027 revenue $74.8B–$75.8B from $72.2B–$73.4B, EPS $5.47–$5.53 from $5.05–$5.11; hyperscaler AI revenue target lifted to $9B from $7.5B. Q2 guide $18.0B–$18.2B, EPS $1.34–$1.36.
Earnings Quality: BEAT, SOLD. The numbers are clean; the debate is the trajectory. Rosenblatt cut its target on order-growth concerns and Citi said growth may have peaked. [Investing.com, 11/13; Stocktwits, 11/13]
[ANALYSIS] Sources conflict on the after-hours move (one reported +4%), but the premarket read is lower. A Q2 revenue guide at or below the Q1 print is what the market is grading, not the full-year raise.
Wait for Clarity

4. Pre-Market Movers: Upside

NVDA Nvidia · Semiconductors
+2% to +2.7% premarket
Catalyst: A rebound after Thursday’s −4.34% close at $166.19. The 8-K confirmed Huang’s resignation, CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO and CFO, Harvey C. Jones as first board Chair, and November 17 earnings as scheduled. A Bloomberg report on restricted chips reaching China via Dell and Super Micro servers is a second overhang. [SEC 8-K, 11/12; Investinglive, 11/13; Stocktitan, 11/13]
Signal Check: Real but reflexive. The stock has absorbed two headline shocks in two sessions; the 8-K did not give a reason for the resignation.
[ANALYSIS] Halving a 14% intraday loss says buyers treat the business as separate from its founder. The test comes Tuesday, when the first guide without Huang meets a 5.1% 10-year. Until then, $166 is the line that matters.
Wait for Open
MOD Modine Manufacturing · Industrials / Data-Center Cooling
+31% premarket (~$139.28)
Catalyst: Unconfirmed reports of acquisition talks with Samsung. No company statement was found in our research. [CNBC premarket movers, 11/13]
Signal Check: Headline-driven. The stock traded near $96 last week against a 52-week high above $320, so a takeout premium has room, but nothing is signed.
[ANALYSIS] A 31% gap on an unconfirmed report prices most of a deal before one exists. If talks are denied or stall, the gap can close quickly; if confirmed, the spread to an offer will be the trade.
Avoid Chasing

Also higher. Merlin (MRLN) and VirTra (VTSI) are sharply higher after Q3 reports; figures were not found in our research. AI peers that rallied Thursday are giving some back (see Downside). [Stocktitan, 11/13]

5. Pre-Market Movers: Downside

MSFT Microsoft · Software / Cloud
−2.3% premarket (~$511)
Catalyst: A global outage of Outlook, Teams, SharePoint and Copilot, now in its second day. Microsoft reports improving availability, no sign of malicious activity, and blamed a traffic surge and a server-health component. The stock closed Thursday near $523. [Forbes, 11/13; Al Jazeera, 11/13; ABC News, 11/13]
Damage Assessment: Likely one-time, but the cost depends on duration, enterprise service credits and any customer churn narrative around Copilot reliability.
[ANALYSIS] Outages rarely change the revenue line, but a multi-day failure of the core productivity suite lands just as Microsoft asks customers to pay more for AI add-ons. A full restoration before the open would make this a gap to fade; a third day would not.
Wait for Clarity
AMD · AVGO AMD / Broadcom · Semiconductors
−1.8% / −2.4% premarket
Catalyst: Giving back part of Thursday’s rally, which was driven by hopes of gaining share from Nvidia’s leadership turmoil, as Nvidia rebounds. [Yahoo Finance, 11/12; Stocktitan, 11/13]
Damage Assessment: No new company news. The move is a rotation unwind, not a fundamental change.
[ANALYSIS] Share-shift trades priced in a day tend to wait for evidence, and the evidence is Nvidia’s guide on Tuesday. Neither name gains a customer because Nvidia changed its CEO.
Wait for Clarity
GP GreenPower Motor · Electric Vehicles
−19.5% premarket
Catalyst: No catalyst was found in our research. [Stocktitan, 11/13]
Damage Assessment: An unexplained move in a small cap is either an undisclosed event or thin-liquidity algo noise.
[ANALYSIS] Without a filing or headline, there is no basis to call it oversold or broken. Check for an 8-K or financing notice before the open.
Wait for Clarity

6. Sector Rotation Radar

STRONG: AI Compute With Visible Customers

Cerebras (+16%) on a Microsoft deal and a raised guide, and Applied Materials on a Q1 guide above the Street, show money still flows to AI names that can show orders. Durability: tied to Nvidia’s Tuesday guide; a strong print supports the whole chain, a weak one tests the equipment names first. [CNBC, 11/12; Investing.com, 11/12]

WEAK: Small Caps and Rate-Sensitives

The Russell 2000 fell 1.66% Thursday, four times the S&P 500’s loss, as the 10-year touched 5.10% and the 30-year tailed. Durability: as long as the long end lacks a bid, floating-rate borrowers stay on the wrong side of the tape. [Yahoo Finance, 11/12; Here Rockhill, 11/13]

[ANALYSIS] The index hid the real rotation: 377 S&P members fell while the headline lost only 0.35%. Large AI names with cash absorbed a governance shock; small, leveraged companies paid for the rate move.

7. Today's Session Playbook

  1. PPI is out; yields decide the day. Headline +0.3% vs +0.4%, core ex food, energy and trade +0.5%. Watch whether the 10-year stays near 5.1% or slips back toward 5.0% on the softer headline.
  2. Nvidia under Kress. Thursday’s $166.19 close is the line. Holding the premarket bounce into the weekend would say investors have separated the company from its founder ahead of Tuesday’s report.
  3. S&P 500 levels: Thursday’s close of 7,592.40 is the pivot, with support at Tuesday’s 7,520.93 close and resistance at Wednesday’s 7,619.38. The index is still up about 2.9% this week from the November 6 close of 7,376.86.
  4. Event risk over the weekend. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites and unverified tanker hits in Hormuz put oil gap risk into Monday, and the Microsoft outage is not yet fully resolved.
  5. Under-the-radar: equipment over networking. Applied Materials and Cisco both beat and raised; one is flat to higher, the other lower. The market is paying for the AI build-out’s tools and questioning how long networking growth lasts.
The Weekly Edge · [ANALYSIS] Hypothesis only, not a recommendation
The AI trade survived its founder; the coupon is the harder test

Yesterday our research said the market had begun pricing the concentration of the AI trade as a risk of its own, separate from AI demand. Thursday tested that in the most direct way possible. Huang resigned, Nvidia fell 14% intraday, and then it closed down only 4.34% while AMD and Broadcom rallied. Concentration risk did not leave the AI trade; it moved to other tickers inside it. Our premarket calls held: Nvidia Wait for Clarity spared a buyer the 14% low, and futures at −0.4% matched a −0.35% cash close. Closes for CoreWeave, Lilly and Nebius were not found.

The part we underweighted was the bond market. We said the Treasury reopen had not graded AI debt. By Thursday afternoon, the 30-year had tailed at 5.441% with dealers left holding 11.39%, the third tailed auction in three days, and the 10-year reached 5.10%. The Russell 2000’s 1.66% loss was the clearest price of that shift.

The hypothesis for next week: the delta rule still governs AI earnings, as Cerebras and Applied Materials showed, but the hurdle rises with the 10-year. A beat that clears expectations at 4.9% may not clear them at 5.1%, which is one reading of Cisco. Nvidia’s Tuesday report is the test. A guide that beats with the 10-year at 5.1% would say AI cash flow can outrun the coupon; a beat that sells off would say the long bond, not leadership, is the master variable again.

Sources

Yahoo Finance, WTOP/AP and Vistapglobal: Thursday closes, breadth, Nvidia and AI peer moves, intraday yields. SEC 8-K (Nvidia): CEO transition and earnings date. Here Rockhill: 30-year auction results. Seeking Alpha, TokenPost, ActionForex and FX.co: October PPI. Invezz, Investing.com and Stocktitan: futures and premarket movers. Investinglive and MLQ: Asia closes. Rio Times and CoinDesk: yields, dollar, gold, Bitcoin. Reuters via Investing.com: oil settlements and Saudi attacks. CNBC and Quartz: Cerebras results. Investing.com and Crypto Briefing: Applied Materials results. Cisco 8-K, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com and Stocktwits: Cisco results and analyst reaction. Forbes, Al Jazeera and ABC News: Microsoft outage. TradingKey/CME and Reuters: FedWatch odds and Fed leans. All prices and figures are pre-market or prior-session snapshots (~8:55 AM ET) and may have changed by the open.

Important Disclaimer

FOR INFORMATIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. This document is prepared by Carlos Artiles and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security. All data is drawn from publicly available information believed reliable but not guaranteed. Pre-market prices and figures reflect conditions at the time of research and may have changed materially by the open. Verdict tags are analytical frameworks, not trade signals. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed professional before acting.