Wednesday’s AI rebound lasted one session. The S&P 500 rose 1.31% to 7,619.38 and CoreWeave closed up 24.71%, then a Wall Street Journal report that Nvidia’s board is weighing Jensen Huang’s future sent the stock down about 7% to 8% overnight. Treasuries reopened with the 10-year near 5.01%, Nebius beat by 8% and fell on its capital plan, and the 30-year auction, Cisco and Applied Materials all land today.
Research compiled pre-market (~8:55 AM ET). Yesterday our research said equities were grading AI revenue on a bond holiday and that Thursday’s reopen would grade AI debt, with the rebound expected to split by leverage. The reopen came in calm: the 10-year is about 5.01% and the 30-year is steady near 5.35%. The split arrived anyway, but the first cut came from a boardroom, not a bond desk. Nasdaq 100 futures are down about 1% while Dow futures are flat, and Nvidia’s rivals are bid.

At a Glance: What Moves the Tape

  • Nvidia’s board weighs its CEO: the Wall Street Journal reported directors were preparing to discuss removing Jensen Huang; Reuters said the board met late Wednesday and could not verify the Journal’s account. No decision had been announced by early Thursday. Shares are down about 7% to 8% near $160. [WSJ via CBS News, 11/12; Reuters via Yahoo Finance, 11/12; TheStreet, ~8:00 AM ET]
  • Wednesday’s rebound was broad: S&P 500 +1.31% to 7,619.38, Nasdaq Composite +1.60% to 25,466.19, Dow +0.49% to 52,486.49; CoreWeave +24.71%, Nvidia +2.87% to $173.73. [Reuters via Yahoo Finance, 11/11]
  • Bonds reopen near 5%: the 10-year traded about 5.01%, the 2-year near 4.78% (+5bp) and the 30-year steady near 5.35% after Veterans Day. The 30-year auction prices at 1:00 PM against a prior 5.618%. [CNBC, 11/12; TokenPost, 11/12; Treasury, auction schedule]
  • Nebius beats and sinks: Q3 revenue $980.8M (+571%) vs. $907.5M expected, but 2026 revenue near the bottom of its $3.0B–$3.4B range and higher capex sent shares down about 8% to 15% premarket. [CNBC, 11/12; Qz, 11/12; StockMarketWatch, pre-market]
  • Claims tick up, dollar firms: initial claims 200K vs. about 195K expected; the dollar index rose 0.7% Wednesday to 102.91, its highest since April 2025, and gold closed below $4,000. [DOL via FXStreet, 11/12; Mitrade, 11/12]

1. Macro Pulse

S&P 500 Fut
−0.4%
~8:00 AM ET
Nasdaq 100 Fut
−1.0%
NVDA −7% to −8%
Dow Fut
+0.1%
roughly flat
10-Yr Treasury
~5.01%
+2bp on reopen
VIX
~18.3
Wed close 17.49

Wednesday’s close: the AI trade came back. The S&P 500 rose 1.31% to 7,619.38, the Nasdaq Composite 1.60% to 25,466.19 and the Dow 0.49% to 52,486.49. CoreWeave closed up 24.71% on its beat-and-raise and Nvidia rebounded 2.87% to $173.73 despite a Baird downgrade to Neutral. Apple set a record. The VIX fell about 10% to 17.49. [Reuters via Yahoo Finance, 11/11; TheStreet, 11/11; Fool, 11/11]

Overnight, the board took it back. After the close the Wall Street Journal reported Nvidia’s directors would meet as soon as Wednesday to discuss Huang’s future, including whether his relationships created conflicts of interest or security risks. Huang admitted an affair this week with a woman intelligence agencies describe as a suspected Chinese spy, and the board has hired Wachtell Lipton to investigate. Bloomberg reported directors are working with an outside firm on potential successors; that report is not confirmed by the company. Futures at about 8:00 AM ET: S&P 500 −0.4%, Nasdaq 100 −1.0%, Dow +0.1%. [CBS News, 11/12; CNN, 11/12; Investing.com, 11/12; TipRanks, 11/12]

Rates reopen without drama. Treasuries were closed Wednesday. This morning the 10-year rose about 2 basis points to roughly 5.01%, the 2-year about 5 basis points to 4.78%, and the 30-year held near 5.35%, so the curve flattened again at the front. On Wednesday FedWatch showed 88.5% odds of a 25bp December hike and 11.5% for 50bp; the FOMC meets December 8–9. [CNBC, 11/12; TokenPost, 11/12; mlq.ai, 11/11]

Overseas, Europe at a record and Asia in the red. The STOXX 600 rose about 0.3% to a record near 665 on quarterly profit growth tracking 25%, the strongest in four years per LSEG, while European tech fell about 1.3%. Asia slipped: Taiex −2.6%, Hang Seng −1.26% near 24,008, Nikkei −0.7% near 60,819. [Reuters via Yahoo Finance, 11/12; Business Recorder, 11/12; Armenpress, 11/12]

Dollar up, gold down, oil quiet. The dollar index rose 0.7% Wednesday to 102.91, its highest since April 2025. Spot gold closed below $4,000 for the first time since November 3. WTI settled Wednesday at $86.53 (+0.6%) and Brent at $92.76 (+1.4%); Brent is about $92.29 this morning (−0.5%). Both remain down roughly 17% to 21% for November. Bitcoin trades near $73,500. [Mitrade, 11/12; FXStreet, 11/12; Nexus Research, 11/12]

[ANALYSIS] A firm dollar, gold under $4,000 and a 2-year at 4.78% describe a market pricing a December hike as settled. That leaves equities trading company-specific risk, and today the largest single risk sits in one boardroom.

MARKET TONE: MIXED, with a single-stock shock. The Dow is flat and Europe sits at a record, but the Nasdaq carries Nvidia’s governance discount into a 30-year auction and two AI-hardware reports after the close.

2. Economic Calendar

Release / EventTime (ET)Why It Matters
Initial Jobless Claims (week to Nov 7)8:30 AMReleased: 200K vs. about 195K expected, prior revised to 191K; continuing claims fell 20K to 1.697M. Layoffs stay low, so the labor market gives the Fed no reason to skip December.
30-Year Bond Auction1:00 PMPrior high yield 5.618%. A tail with the 10-year at 5% would test the long end that has held steady since Tuesday’s CPI; strong demand keeps the selloff concentrated at the front.
Fed: Beth Hammack (Cleveland, voter)~2:00 PMHawkish lean; voted for the October hike and expects policy must become restrictive. Times vary by calendar.
Fed: Michael Barr (Governor)~3:00 PMBacked the recent hike and signaled more adjustments in September remarks; first comments after hot October CPI.
Fed: Goolsbee, Daly, Schmid, WilliamsAfternoon to eveningGoolsbee ~4:30 PM; Daly ~1:10 PM and Schmid ~1:30 PM by one calendar; Williams ~6:30 PM. Any endorsement of a 50bp December move would reprice the 2-year.
Cisco, Applied Materials earningsAfter closeCSCO consensus ~$1.33 adj EPS on ~$18.13B; AMAT ~$4.06 on ~$10.3B, options imply ~9% to 10%. Both read AI hardware demand.

[ANALYSIS] Today is about supply and speakers. Friday’s PPI (+0.4% expected) is the next data point. Musalem has said further firming will be needed “soon,” so the question for today’s speakers is size, 25bp or 50bp, not direction. [Investing.com, calendar; Newsquawk, 11/12; Qz, 10/30; Benzinga, 11/11; TipRanks, 11/12]

3. Earnings Spotlight

NBIS Nebius Group · AI Cloud Infrastructure
−8% to −15% premarket
Q3 revenue $980.8M, up 571% year over year, vs. $907.5M expected; net loss $37.5M, or $0.13 per share. [CNBC, 11/12; Qz, 11/12]
Guidance: 2026 revenue now expected near the bottom of the $3.0B–$3.4B range vs. a $3.35B FactSet consensus; first 2027 outlook of $12B–$13B; higher 2026 capex. [CNBC, 11/12]
Earnings Quality: BEAT, GUIDE TO LOW END, a clean revenue beat offset by a full-year guide that slips toward the floor and a larger spending plan.
[ANALYSIS] This is the debt-and-capex grade our research expected from the reopen, delivered by an earnings release. Revenue growth of 571% did not matter; the market priced the funding need behind the 2027 target. The stock also carries Nvidia-ownership sympathy this morning, so the two drivers are hard to separate before the open.
Wait for Clarity
TTEK Tetra Tech · Engineering & Consulting
+9.7% premarket
Fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS $0.49 vs. $0.47 expected; net revenue roughly in line. Shares near $41.25. [TipRanks, 11/12; Benzinga, pre-market]
Guidance: fiscal 2027 EPS $1.65–$1.80 on net revenue $4.425B–$4.625B, above the $4.05B–$4.25B range set for fiscal 2026; fiscal Q1 EPS $0.36–$0.38. [8-K, 11/12]
Earnings Quality: CLEAN BEAT, a modest EPS beat with a revenue outlook that implies growth near 9% at the midpoint.
[ANALYSIS] A small beat plus a credible next-year guide earns a near-10% gap in a name the Street had marked down, which is the delta rule working on a low bar. The move is large relative to a two-cent beat, so let the opening volume confirm it.
Momentum Play
EYE National Vision · Specialty Retail
−14.3% premarket
Q3 results before the open; shares down 14.32% to $15.50. Pre-report consensus was adjusted EPS of $0.15 on $510.3M of revenue. [Benzinga, pre-market; Earnings Whispers, preview]
Guidance: reported figures and outlook were not available in our sources at research time.
Earnings Quality: UNSCORED, the reaction is known, the line items are not.
[ANALYSIS] A 14% drop in a stock already down about 24% since its last report signals a guidance or margin problem rather than a headline miss. Without the numbers, the only disciplined stance is to wait.
Wait for Clarity

4. Pre-Market Movers: Upside

AMD Advanced Micro Devices · Semiconductors
+3.2% to +3.6% premarket
Catalyst: Rival read-through from the Nvidia leadership report; shares near $570.77. [Forbes, 11/12; Investing.com, 11/12]
Signal Check: No company news. This is substitution money: investors who want AI accelerator exposure without a governance question.
[ANALYSIS] The trade assumes Nvidia customers might hesitate during a leadership change. Purchase orders move on product roadmaps, not on CEO headlines, so the move depends on how long the uncertainty lasts.
Momentum Play
AVGO Broadcom · Semiconductors
+2.5% to +3.4% premarket
Catalyst: Same rotation out of Nvidia into custom-chip and networking suppliers. [Investing.com, 11/12; Forbes, 11/12]
Signal Check: Sympathy move, no company news. Export-control proposals in the Senate defense bill and at Commerce cover the whole sector, which limits how far a rival bid can run.
[ANALYSIS] Broadcom’s custom accelerators are the cleaner substitute story, but a pre-market bid on someone else’s bad news is the thinnest kind of move. Confirm with volume at the open.
Wait for Open
LLY Eli Lilly · Pharmaceuticals
+2.8% to +3% premarket
Catalyst: China’s National Medical Products Administration approved orforglipron, Lilly’s oral GLP-1 weight-loss pill, under the brand name “Muyouda,” per Investing.com and TradingKey. Lilly had committed about $3B to China supply ahead of approval. [Investing.com, 11/12; BioSpace, earlier]
Signal Check: Real catalyst on a regulatory decision, though reported by financial outlets rather than a company release in our sources.
[ANALYSIS] China opens the largest untapped obesity market to a pill that needs no cold chain, and Lilly built capacity in advance. That is a contracted-style growth story, the kind our research says the market keeps paying for.
Opportunity
AVEX AEVEX · Defense / Drones
+13.2% premarket
Catalyst: Q3 results after Wednesday’s close; shares near $13.73. Pre-report consensus was $150.8M of revenue, down about 25% from Q2, and $0.09 EPS. [Benzinga, pre-market; Finviz, preview]
Signal Check: Earnings-driven, but the reported figures were not in our sources. The stock had roughly halved into the print on fears of a contract roll-off.
[ANALYSIS] A low bar plus a short squeeze can produce a double-digit gap without a strong quarter. Wait for the numbers and the volume.
Wait for Open

5. Pre-Market Movers: Downside

NVDA Nvidia · Semiconductors
−6% to −8.6% premarket
Catalyst: The Wall Street Journal reported the board was preparing to discuss removing Huang; Reuters said the board met late Wednesday. Shares trade near $160 after closing at $173.73. [CBS News, 11/12; TheStreet, ~8:00 AM ET; StockMarketWatch, pre-market]
Damage Assessment: Governance, not demand. The board said earlier this week it had no reason to believe secrets were compromised. The second layer is policy: Senate defense-bill provisions and Commerce proposals would tighten chip exports, and China has not allowed H200 imports. Earnings are due November 17.
[ANALYSIS] A two-day slide earlier this week erased more than $430B of value, and no decision has been announced. A removal or a reaffirmation will move the stock sharply either way. Until then the discount is a guess.
Wait for Clarity
CRWV CoreWeave · AI Cloud Infrastructure
−9.7% premarket
Catalyst: Nvidia is a CoreWeave shareholder and supplier; the stock gives back part of Wednesday’s 24.71% gain. [TheStreet, pre-market; Reuters via Yahoo Finance, 11/11]
Damage Assessment: Sympathy, plus the balance sheet we flagged: Q4 interest expense of $1.05B–$1.15B against $379M of quarterly operating income.
[ANALYSIS] A 25% one-day gain followed by a 10% retreat is a stock trading its own volatility. The bounce off the earnings low is real, but the debt load means it will sell first on any AI scare.
Dead Cat Watch
MRVL · INTC · LRCX Chip peers · Semiconductors
~−1.9% premarket
Catalyst: Sector pressure from the Nvidia report and export-control headlines; Taiwan’s Taiex fell 2.6% overnight. Lam and Applied Materials trade lower ahead of AMAT’s report. [Investing.com, 11/12; Yahoo Finance, 11/12]
Damage Assessment: Contagion, not fundamentals. No company-specific news.
[ANALYSIS] Equipment names get their own verdict tonight from Applied Materials, whose January guide will show whether memory spending holds. Wait for that print before treating today’s weakness as a trend.
Wait for Clarity

6. Sector Rotation Radar

STRONG: Europe and Defensive Quality

The STOXX 600 hit a record on profit growth tracking 25%, the DAX rose about 1%, and Dow futures are flat while the Nasdaq falls. Lilly adds a healthcare catalyst. Durability: earnings-backed, so it holds unless the 30-year auction reprices global long ends. [Reuters via Yahoo Finance, 11/12; Newsquawk, 11/12]

WEAK: Nvidia’s Orbit

Nvidia (−7% to −8%), CoreWeave (−9.7%) and Nebius (−8% to −15%) lead the drop, with the Taiex down 2.6%. Durability: tied to a board decision with no timetable, and to Cisco and Applied Materials tonight. [TheStreet, pre-market; Armenpress, 11/12]

[ANALYSIS] The divide is inside AI, not around it: AMD and Broadcom rise while Nvidia and its leveraged customers fall. Capital is moving away from concentration and leverage, not out of the theme.

7. Today’s Session Playbook

  1. Nvidia’s board. Any statement on Huang moves the Nasdaq more than the data. A reaffirmation could reverse much of the gap; an interim CEO would extend it.
  2. 30-year auction at 1:00 PM. Prior 5.618%. With the 10-year back at 5%, a tail is the main risk to the long end’s calm; a strong result keeps the pressure at the 2-year.
  3. S&P 500 levels: Wednesday’s 7,619.38 close is resistance and Tuesday’s 7,520.93 close is the support to watch. A close below 7,520.93 would erase the CoreWeave rally.
  4. Event risk after the close. Cisco and Applied Materials report; options price about a 9% to 10% AMAT move. Hammack, Barr and Goolsbee speak into the evening, and PPI arrives Friday.
  5. Under-the-radar: Tetra Tech’s guide. A fiscal 2027 revenue range above this year’s shows government and infrastructure consulting growing outside the AI cycle, at a time when AI is the crowded trade.
The Weekly Edge · [ANALYSIS] Hypothesis only, not a recommendation
Bonds took the reopen calmly; the boardroom did the grading

Yesterday our research said equities were grading AI revenue on a bond holiday and that Thursday’s reopen would grade AI debt, with the rebound splitting by leverage. Wednesday followed the first part closely. Futures had pointed to Nasdaq 100 +1.9% and S&P +0.9%; cash closed with the Nasdaq Composite +1.60% and the S&P +1.31%, and CoreWeave added 24.71%. Our Momentum Play on CoreWeave held through the close, and our Wait for Open on Nvidia was right as it finished +2.87%, below its +4.5% to +5.3% premarket gain, before falling after hours.

The reopen itself was quieter than we expected. The 10-year rose only about 2 basis points to 5.01% and the 30-year held near 5.35%. Our forecast of a split by leverage is still showing up, through two other channels. Nebius beat revenue by 8% and fell on its capital plan, the delta rule applied to capex. And a governance shock at the sector’s largest supplier hit its most leveraged customers hardest: CoreWeave −9.7% and Nebius −8% or more, against AMD and Broadcom higher.

The hypothesis now: the market is pricing the concentration of the AI trade as a risk, apart from AI demand. One company’s governance can move a 10% sector drawdown when the customers financed their buildout against that company’s chips. Expect diversified suppliers and earning users to hold better than leveraged neoclouds until the Nvidia board resolves. The tests come quickly: the 30-year auction at 1:00 PM decides whether bonds stay calm, Cisco and Applied Materials tonight show whether AI hardware demand holds without Nvidia’s lead, and Friday’s PPI sets the size of December’s hike.

Sources

Reuters via Yahoo Finance, TheStreet and Fool: Wednesday closes, CoreWeave and Nvidia moves, Europe. CBS News, CNN, Investing.com, TipRanks and Forbes: Nvidia board reports, rival moves, premarket futures, Lilly. CNBC and TokenPost: Treasury yields on reopening. mlq.ai and Qz: FedWatch odds and Fed commentary. CNBC and Qz: Nebius results. Benzinga, StockMarketWatch and Chartmill: premarket movers. SEC 8-K and TipRanks: Tetra Tech guidance and results. DOL via FXStreet: jobless claims. Mitrade, FXStreet and Nexus Research: oil, gold, dollar, bitcoin, VIX. Business Recorder, Armenpress and Newsquawk: overseas markets and Fed calendar. Investing.com and Treasury: auction schedule. All prices and figures are pre-market or prior-session snapshots (~8:55 AM ET) and may have changed by the open.

Important Disclaimer

FOR INFORMATIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. This document is prepared by Carlos Artiles and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security. All data is drawn from publicly available information believed reliable but not guaranteed. Pre-market prices and figures reflect conditions at the time of research and may have changed materially by the open. Verdict tags are analytical frameworks, not trade signals. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed professional before acting.