Morning Brief
Oil Hits $100 for the First Time in Over a Month, and the 10-Year Just Closed at Its Highest Level Since 2023
The conflict this brief has tracked for seven months entered a genuinely new phase over the past three sessions. The US struck three Iranian oil tankers over...
Payrolls Crushed Expectations at +162,000, and Futures Are Diverging on What That Means for the Fed
August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000, nearly triple the roughly 53,000 to 58,000 economists expected and the strongest monthly gain since March, while July was...
Trump Calls the Iran Strikes a “Love Tap” While the US Hits “Very Hard”: Markets Are Wavering on Which Description to Believe
Oil has gained roughly 9% over three sessions, pushing WTI near $91 and Brent to a settle just below $96 Wednesday, even as Trump offered genuinely...
The 10-Year Just Hit a Two-Year High, and ADP's Weakest Report Since January Landed the Same Morning
Private payrolls grew just 38,000 in August, well below the roughly 48,000 expected and the weakest pace since January, while the 10-year Treasury yield...
Trump Calls Iran “Totally Defeated” for What May Be the Tenth Time Since March, and Oil Doesn't Believe Him
Brent crude topped $92 and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.75% as September opens with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures all lower. Trump repeated a...
Warsh's “Discipline, Not Decision” Turned Out to Be Hawkish, and Iran Just Ended Weeks of Calm
September rate-hike odds jumped from 35.4% Thursday to 57.5% after Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote, a genuinely hawkish surprise from a chair whose entire brand...
Marvell Beat, Raised Guidance Twice, and Landed a $120B Deal, and Still Fell: The Week Closes on Warsh
Record revenue, a beat on every line, guidance raised for both fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028, and a newly disclosed Google custom-chip partnership worth up to...
Nvidia Answered Every Question at Once: $96.2B Revenue, a $108B Guide, and a $2T Backlog
Revenue of $96.22B beat the $92.17B estimate, adjusted EPS of $2.22 beat $2.10, and third-quarter guidance of $108B crushed the $104.2B analysts expected....
The Fulcrum Day: PCE Ran Hot, and Nvidia Reports Tonight Into a Market Priced for Perfection
July's headline PCE came in at 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year, both a tenth above consensus, while core PCE matched expectations exactly at 0.2%...
“Economic D-Day” Turned Out to Be a Relief Rally: Oil Fell 3%+ as Markets Bet on Diplomacy Over War
Yesterday's sanctions announcement, billed as the single greatest financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary, produced the opposite of what the...