Morning Brief
The 10-Year Just Hit a Two-Decade High, Oil Is Back Above $103, and Today Is the Actual Trump-Xi Summit
Wednesday delivered the sharpest reversal our research has tracked this month: the 10-year Treasury yield surged 15 basis points to 5.11%, its highest since...
Xi Arrives in Washington Today, and Markets Are Calibrating Toward “Trade Truce Extension,” Not a Breakthrough
Chinese President Xi Jinping begins a three-day visit to Washington today, with the actual Trump-Xi meeting landing tomorrow, Reuters describing it as “a grand...
Monday's Thesis Just Got Validated: Oil Fell Despite a Real Houthi Attack, and the Nasdaq Hit Its 21st Record of 2026
Monday delivered exactly the kind of session this brief flagged as the open question a day earlier, would markets' selective attention to positive catalysts...
Oil Retreats Despite Renewed Middle East Tensions, as Markets Choose to Price Thursday's Trump-Xi Summit Instead
Futures are rising to open a week headlined by Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting, with S&P 500 futures up about 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures up roughly 0.7%, and Dow...
The BOJ Hikes Too, Buffett Steps Down, and Trump Softens His Fed Complaint: A Landmark Week Closes
The Bank of Japan raised rates 25 basis points to 1.25% early this morning, treated by markets as close to a formality, with Governor Ueda's tone the real...
The Fed Decides Today: 92% Odds of the First Hike Since 2023, and the 10-Year Just Crossed 5%
The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting this afternoon, with rate futures pricing a 92% probability of a quarter-point hike to 3.75% to...
Three AI CEOs Just Called for a Slowdown, Trump Said No, and Chip Stocks Are Tumbling Into FOMC Week
Anthropic's Dario Amodei, OpenAI's Sam Altman, and xAI's Elon Musk publicly backed calls to slow AI development over the weekend, following a researcher's...
Oracle's Clean Beat and Iran-Oman Talks Snap a Four-Day Losing Streak, but CPI Is the Real Test Today
Futures are bouncing after the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all closed lower for a fourth straight day Thursday, the S&P's longest losing streak since early March,...
Trump Says the War Ends in “Weeks.” A Senior Iranian Official Says Tehran Is Ready for “More Intense War.” Both Can't Be Right.
Wednesday, President Trump downplayed rising oil prices and predicted the conflict would end soon, telling reporters “I think the war is going to end...