Morning Brief
The Auction Cleared, Oil Didn’t: Brent Tops $105 on Iran Strike Reports Into the 30-Year Sale
Wednesday’s $39B 10-year auction drew the strongest foreign demand in years and pulled yields off their 2002-era high. Overnight, reports that the Pentagon has...
The Long Bond Takes Back Tuesday: 30-Year at 5.72% Into the 10-Year Auction and Fed Minutes
Tuesday's record close lasted one night. The 30-year Treasury is back at 5.72%, its highest since 2002, as Brent holds above $101 and Iran restates its terms...
Nasdaq Record, 30-Year at 5.67%: The Market Pays the Target and Punishes the Buyer
Monday's Nasdaq closed at a record 27,477.31 while the 10-year Treasury hit 5.315% and the 30-year 5.670%, fresh 24-year highs. The deal tape sent a sharper...
Front End Bought the Miss, the Long Bond Didn't: Schneider Pays $22.6B for PTC
Friday's 29,000 payrolls print collapsed October-hike odds to roughly 22%, yet the 10-year Treasury still closed up 4 basis points at 5.28% and the 30-year...
Payrolls Crater to 29,000: A Rates Relief Rally Collides With Nike's Rout
September nonfarm payrolls came in at just 29,000, a massive miss against the 84,000 consensus, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. Treasury yields,...
The Vise Snaps Shut: Yields Hit a 2002 High Even as Micron Blows Past Estimates
The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.60%, its highest since 2002, and the 10-year sits near 5.28–5.29%, a fresh multi-decade high, even after Wednesday’s...
The Vise Opens: Williams Blinks, PCE Cools, and Gold Gets Its Bid Back
Core PCE came in at 3.0% versus 3.3% expected, and July was revised down to match. NY Fed’s Williams said Tuesday there is “no need for urgency” on rate hikes,...
Yields Top 5.25%, Gold Craters Again, and Trump Calls the Iran Deal a Hoax
The 10-year hit 5.24% to 5.25% overnight, its highest since 2007, and the 30-year touched 5.56%, its highest since 2004. Gold fell another 3.71% to $4,127, its...
The Hawks Win the Weekend: Williams Says Hike, Trump Says No to Iran
NY Fed President John Williams called another rate hike “reasonable” by year-end, and CME FedWatch odds on an October move jumped to 77.5% from 53% in a single...
The Summit Was Warm but Light, and Today's Real Relief Comes From a Reported Phased Deal on Hormuz
The Trump-Xi summit, Xi's first US visit in over a decade, ended Thursday without a major breakthrough. Saxo's Charu Chanana called it “warm in tone but...